ROME. The decline in infections continues to slow down in Italy, from the provincial to the national level, and in four weeks there have been fewer tests: this is the picture that emerges from the analysis of the data of the Covid-19 epidemic in Italy conducted by the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani , of the Institute for the Applications of Computing ‘Mauro Piconè of the National Research Council (Cnr-Iac). “The analysis shows that the already observed slowdown in the descent of the contagion continues”, observes the expert, and that “the decrease in testing has been underway for four weeks, the main contribution of which does not appear to be the decrease in the incidence of positive “.
The molecular test positive percentage curve, calculated on the basis of data from the 14 autonomous regions and provinces that provide molecular and antigenic test positives separately, shows that “in the last seven days there is a statistically significant excess of values from the base of the linear trend, compared to the defect of the previous seven days “. The current estimated values of the percentage are 6.5% for Calabria, followed by Valle D’Aosta (5%), the autonomous province of Bolzano (4.5%), Campania, Piedmont and Puglia, all at 4%, Emilia Romagna and Lazio (2.5%), Lombardy, Sardinia, Tuscany and the autonomous province of Trento, all al 2%, Veneto (1.5%) and Friuli Venezia Giulia (0.5%).
The slowdown is also visible at the provincial level: on the basis of the only publicly available data, i.e. those on the incidence of cumulative positives on both types of tests, about half of the provinces show signs of slowdown and in 13 of them the incidence in the last 7 days exceeds 40 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The highest incidence is recorded in Catania, with 76 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, followed by Vibo Valentia (63), Forlì-Cesena (58), Reggio di Calabria (56), Ragusa (55), Sondrio (54), Brindisi (49), Cosenza, Agrigento and Avellino (42), Enna (41), Vercelli and Benevento (40). Sebastiani’s analysis also indicates that “the average value of the number of molecular tests per day was stable until five weeks ago, when it dropped from about 160,000 to 140,000, 125,000 and 115,000, and was about 90,000 in the first five days of the last week. (HANDLE).