Below is the interview with Pietro Paciello, CEO and Chief Analyst of Pro Markets Sagl, Asset Management Company, to whom we asked some questions about the situation in Piazza Affari and the strategies to follow for various stocks.
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The Ftse Mib is reacting after being rejected by the new tops of the period touched two days ago. Are we in the presence of a false bullish break or are there still opportunities to the upside?
It seems to me that the market maintains a bullish tone, also because the rapid and rare downturns are always canceled by some macro data that comes from the United States and that reverses the situation, bringing back a positive background tone.
The technical situation in Piazza Affari is quite clear and has not changed for some time now.
The Ftse Mib is in a perfect bullish channel, with a theoretical target in the area of 26,000.
A first hint of potential weakness would be with the violation of today’s lows, therefore with a close below 25,100 points.
If we have to talk about interrupted dynamics or starting potential shorts, we have to confine them to a daily close below 23,900 points.
We must therefore distinguish the evaluation timing: for the Ftse Mib we are long towards the 26,000 area, while there will be some weakness below 25,100 points and real weakness below 23,900 points.
Today we are theoretically in the final phase of this bullish wave, so the risk-reward ratio is less favorable.
For those in position I do not see at the moment reasons to close the long, let alone to think about the opening of short.
The market is long and theoretically the Ftse Mib could and should show us the 26,000 points.
In anticipation of this further extension, do you think it is appropriate to focus on two banks such as Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo?
Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit are two banks that have a particularly high specific weight in our list, so it is fair to think that where the index goes the two securities in question and vice versa, except for rare moments in which an evaluation of the company may prevail in as such.
If it is true that the Ftse Mib could give us an approach in the 26,000 area in a fairly short time, it seems to me that Intesa Sanpaolo still has an upside potential towards the 2.65 euro area.
Once this threshold is reached, I would be careful, because there is a great dynamic resistance that was even born in 2016, so it is long-term.
Wanting to give a more short-term reference, if Intesa Sanpaolo does not go to hit the 2.65 euro and a deceleration starts earlier, I would pay great attention to the 2.31 euro area, under which a very bearish dynamic could be triggered.
Very similar reasoning for Unicredit which has recovered very well and the resistance is now in the 11.5 euro zone, which I would indicate as a target for a potential target of exhaustion of the bullish movement in progress.
Until then the stock is to be held in a long position, but it is too late to enter at this time.
As a danger threshold, I would look at the 9.7 euro area and a closing below this level will negate the scenario just described.
Conversely, although it may seem a fairly ambitious target, I believe it is probable that we will reach 11.5 euros.
In the last few days, Banca Popolare di Sondrio has also attracted attention among bankers in view of possible extraordinary transactions. What is your view on this title?
When we talked about alternatives to the duopoly of Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo, we have always referred to Banco BPM and Bper Banca.
Recently the market has shown interest in Banca Popolare di Sondrio which has gone from being almost ignored by operators, to very violent and very strong growth.
I am not able to give quality bullish projections such as those given for Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo and I theoretically have an extension target price towards the 4.77 euro area.
Rather than worrying about how far Banca Popolare di Sondrio can rise, it will be good to assess where this expansionary phase could weaken.
Under the 4 euro area, some alarm bells could be triggered, it being understood that those who bought the stock certainly did well.
ENI and Saipem trying to follow the rise in oil without showing particular tears. What strategies can you suggest for both of us?
It is true that in the last few days, even in the presence of oil that is rising well, ENI did not take much advantage or rather did it first and then started a stabilization dynamic.
If oil continues to rise, ENI will have a target in the 11 euro area, resistance in place since May 2019.
In my opinion, the stock can go up to this threshold, while I signal danger only in case of daily closing below 10 euros.
If ENI were to return to the 10 euro area, I would be careful because violent profit-taking could start.
Saipem is more speculative, with fundamentals that are completely different from ENI and which tends to emphasize oil movements.
In recent times the stock has breached upwards of 2.12 / 2.13 euros and this in my opinion is a long signal.
I see a first target in the 2.7 euro area where a double top has been achieved quite recently.
Unlike ENI, for Saipem I do not see equally significant support levels to indicate an alert zone.
Trend-online Deputy Director, born in 1978.
After completing his studies at the Classical High School “Antonio Calamo” of Ostuni I entered the world of economics.
For about twenty years I have been dealing with Stock Exchange and Finance. After having worked as a financial promoter for several years, in 2005 I joined the Trend-online team as an editor, to later become deputy director of the cylinder head. Among other countless activities, I take care of maintaining relationships with all the experts, analysts and traders, consulted daily by Trend-online.
My motto is? “Life is like a mirror, if you look at it smiling it will smile at you”.