Below is the interview with Emanuele Rigo, General Manager of Newtraderlab, to whom we asked some questions about currencies, some commodities and the expected scenarios for the stock exchanges.
The euro-dollar continues to move around the 1.22 area: is the rise that started from 1.17 to be considered complete?
For now it would seem that the bullish push of the euro-dollar has ended, in the sense that the trend of the last few days would seem to confirm the achievement of an area of stability, with the possibility of witnessing a small decline.
Purchases by the ECB, which seem to be slightly higher than in recent weeks, contributed in a fairly important way to halt the rise of the euro-dollar.
It is also worth noting the inflation dynamics in the United States which seem to know no pause at least for the moment.
All things considered, a bit of a decline in the euro-dollar is possible now, it being understood that I do not expect major declines.
A movement is likely that could bring prices back towards the 1.21 area or even below this threshold up to 1.205 in the coming weeks.
We are in a phase of partial laterality, with the possibility of having seen the peak in the area around 1.266, which was the maximum reached two weeks ago.
A reversal of the trend in favor of the dollar is therefore possible, with consequent downsizing of the single currency.
Gold remains just above the $ 1,900 area: what are the possible scenarios for the next sessions?
For gold, I expect a dynamic that is quite in line with that of the euro-dollar, in the sense that I see a possible reversal from current levels.
We have perfectly hit the $ 1,900 target, indeed the prices have gone even further and now it is possible a bit of a decline mainly linked to an expected appreciation of the greenback.
Gold could thus return below the $ 1,900 area, with a projection at $ 1,880 / $ 1,870, without major downward pulls.
Oil is hitting new highs of the year: is the bullish race set to continue?
It is quite complex to assess whether the bullish race will continue or not, because we have a dynamic in which oil has exceeded the threshold of 67/68 dollars, reaching new highs.
The trend of the last few hours is all in all a bit interlocutory, despite confirming the outlook of strength that characterizes the price trend.
We are all awaiting the meetings and the decisions of OPEC which for the moment has registered a stalemate.
The Cartel itself is awaiting the conclusion of the Iranian nuclear agreement which could relax or exacerbate the current price dynamics and therefore Iran’s relations with other countries.
It seems that there may be an agreement, at least the players in the field have shown themselves to be confident, and this is a sign of relaxation that could have a negative impact on oil prices if Iranian production returns to the market.
For the time being, the outlook of strength for black gold is confirmed and given that a possible decline in stocks in the US is expected, this should help keep the oil price level fairly high.
Equity markets remain pegged to highs, in some historical cases. What is your view on equities?
Equity markets remain fairly calm for the time being, although there is some underlying nervousness seen in the movements we continue to witness.
The underlying outlook continues not to diverge from that which began months ago and which continues to confirm the strength.
From a certain point of view it seems that on the market in general the enormous liquidity that is in circulation continues to win, with continuous support for prices by the Central Banks.
From many parts, however, signs of nervousness are starting to arrive: there is an indicator, mainly on US equities, which is called the Skew Index.
This index probes the hedges of the operators with respect to adverse events on the most extreme part of the curve and this means that some are starting to expect strong stock market retreats.
For me, June will still be characterized by a certain underlying stability of the markets, triggered both by the contribution of the Central Banks as regards the liquidity in circulation, and by the wait for the next quarterly reports arriving at the beginning of July.
Trend-online Deputy Director, born in 1978.
After completing his studies at the Classical High School “Antonio Calamo” of Ostuni I entered the world of economics.
For about twenty years I have been dealing with Stock Exchange and Finance. After having worked as a financial promoter for several years, in 2005 I joined the Trend-online team as an editor, to later become deputy director of the cylinder head. Among other countless activities, I take care of maintaining relationships with all the experts, analysts and traders, consulted daily by Trend-online.
My motto is? “Life is like a mirror, if you look at it smiling it will smile at you”.