Cars, the future is electric: a question of “mathematics” – Overspeed

Cars, the future is electric: a question of “mathematics” – Overspeed
Cars, the future is electric: a question of “mathematics” – Overspeed

In the midst of an automotive industry revolution second only to the advent of mass production in the 1910s, the car changes at the speed of light. In the short space of a few years, little by little and then faster and faster, the electric models will take over those with the internal combustion engine. The English journalist has no doubts about it Justin Rowlatt, which in a recent article published on the BBC website explains the reasons for the imminent boom in alternative power supplies in the automotive sector, citing brands and models. Jaguar, for example: the British house would be very close to the turning point, given that it plans to sell only battery-powered cars by 2025. Volvo has set the same target for 2030, while Lotus he plans to take two years less.

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The curious thing is that the technological leap towards electric is not just about premium brands, such as those just mentioned. From the United States General Motors said it will exclusively produce battery-powered models starting in 2035, while another Detroit giant, Ford, has announced that it will stop producing and selling models with the internal combustion engine in Europe starting from 2030. A glimpse of the old piston engines leaves the Volkswagen group, which, however, by 2030 forecasts a sales volume of models on tap equal to approximately 70%. Why all this rush? “Fault” of the governments of the countries around the world, which have started the countdown to the end of combustion engines, accelerating the transition phase towards forms of propulsion considered less polluting.

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Ma the speed with which the electric car is spreading is not just a political issue. Like any revolution, the electric one will also happen quickly, explains Rowlatt, who cites the example of the internet. “According to my calculations – writes the journalist – the electric car market is roughly where the network was at the end of the 90s or the alpha of 2000. At the time there was great excitement, it was a big news, computers that could communicate with each other from a leader at the top of the world. At first most of us didn’t notice, but then things suddenly changed, without giving us time to get used to the change “. It is a rule that underlies every innovation destined to change the destinies of entire countries and entire peoples.

The graph summarizing the Law of the diffusion of innovation, formulated by the American sociologist Everett M. Rogers in 1962 (Photo:

And it is explained by an infallible theory, the Law of the diffusion of innovation. At the beginning, very few believe in big changes (2.5% of the world population in which, so to speak, people like Elon Musk, the eclectic founder of Tesla), until a small group of early users (13.5%) lays the foundations for the creation of a first majority and, shortly, a late majority (both 34%). At that point, the point of return has long since passed: 16% of laggards will remain stoic and anachronistic, but innovation will have already taken over their lives. Internet, which began on the evening of October 29, 1969 with the connection between a computer from the University of California and another from Stanford University, took about thirty years. The electric car might need much less.

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