Inflation, energy e public accounts, this is why the contingent situation we are experiencing on the markets risks becoming explosive for our country. In addition, as we had already anticipated a few weeks ago in these two articles, now the alarm is also coming from politics for possible gas supply problems even in our country in the coldest periods of the year.
It was Giorgetti who talked about it in the morning. We live in a particular context in which it will be crucial to be able to rely on political authority, institutional and capable of strong confrontations and mediations at the European level. Here is the reason for all this.
The inflation figure at 3% represents a strong alarm bell for the public and private accounts of our country. If we then combine this rate with the German one, just measured at 6%, the situation risks becoming even more dangerous.
But let’s try to put some order into everything that is happening:
The price of gas
The violent increase in prices and gas risks becoming the detonator of the time bomb represented by the enormous public debt we have in Italy.
The equation is very simple:
- l’gas surge it is raising the prices of the entire production chain and of all conveniences;
- L’increase in the price of commodities main is affecting the increase in inflation which, in Italy has reached 3% even 6% in Germany. And they are consolidated and formalized data by the research institutes of the individual countries. For us, Istat of course.
- L’so vigorous rise in inflation it is leading above all the countries of the North to ask for the intervention of the ECB. For now, the Von Der Lyer seems to resist, but how long will it be able to see the numbers?
- And if the woman who is at the top of the ECB were to give in to the blows of the bankers who represent the strong countries of Northern Europe and should raise interest rates, for the Italian Public Debt, scenarios that are still very difficult to interpret would open up. The fact is that already in these hours the Italian stock market is the one that corrected most violently and the Spread at 132 represents a first sign of instability.
In short, the situation is not very easy to define. Furthermore, there is another strong consideration to take into account in this difficult macroeconomic scenario and which is dictated by the significant increase in the cost of the energy bill. All this fits into a very fragmented national political context and which is held up exclusively by the strength of the glue identified in Mario Draghi. Mario Draghi is also drawn to the jacket in the controversy linked to the succession of Mattarella, at the Quirinale.
In conclusion, despite the fact that the country is already in strong recovery, of clouds on the horizon, indeed over us, are many, really many. Dense clouds that must also make politics reflect, perhaps a little too far from reality understanding of economic issues which, on the other hand, need to be addressed and expressed with the right approach, also and above all of a political nature.
This is absurd a possible exit strategy is represented by Omicron, the new variant of Covid-19.
If it were truly capable of unleashing a new pandemic wave and if vaccines, as stated by the CEO of Moderna, did not scratch it sufficiently, we could find ourselves with a cooling of the recovery and a drop in inflation.
In short, in order to chase away the ghosts of public accounts, Italy will have to look to Omicron….
Leopoldo Gasbarro, November 30, 2021