With the pandemic the increase of production costs and price increases seem unprecedented. The consequence is that this necessarily affects supply chains that are increasingly connected to each other. The cause are the tensions over the increase in the prices of raw materials, the energy crunch, the climatic factors and the ever-increasing costs of logistics.
The serious problem is the possibility that between the end of the year and the beginning of 2022 all this will end up on the consumer with average increases of between 2 or 3 percent.
Where will the price increases be
The increase in bills is certain: about + 30% on electricity and + 14.5% on gas for each family. Precisely for this reason the government has already intervened urgently. But now the first tensions are beginning to appear on other products as well. First of all, the wholesale prices ofagri-food as driven by the significant increase in the cost of raw materials. As reported by Il Sole 24 ore, to certify the levels never reached in the last decade, in particular on cereals, are the data of BMTI, the Italian telematic commodity exchange. The price of national durum wheat rose 96% after the collapse of the North American crops. This has also invaded the world of semolina: + 90% compared to two years ago. The price of soft wheat is also increasing, the wholesale price of flour has in fact increased by 19% compared to before the pandemic. + 69% on September 2019, in Italy, also on the wholesale prices of seed oils.
The consequence is that the costs, in this way, increase and considerably also on thezootechnical feeding. This means that the price of meat, milk and cheese is rising. “In consumer goods, characterized by a deflationary trend for over ten years, a possible change of scenario is worrying, even if the estimates say they are transitory phenomena”, explains Carlo Alberto Buttarelli, director of studies and supply chain relations at Federdistribuzione. And he adds: “It will take a few months to measure the impact of these phenomena, purifying them of any speculative component“.
The tensions that are being created are considerable: “Some have already moved to proposals to increase price lists by the industry but these must then be discussed, avoiding transferring the costs to the consumer, especially on essential goods such as food.“, always clarifies Buttarelli. At the same time, however, according to the director of Federdistribuzione, it is unthinkable to counteract these pressures for a long time and” much less delay them beyond measure “.
Production costs and energy price increases
The risk ofwaterfall effect it is more than a simple and distant hypothesis. Tiziana Toto, consumer policy manager of Cittadinanzattiva, says: “The increases in bills are the most dramatic we have ever seen in the past 15 years. The new energy and fuel costs will soon be reflected in everything else “. And he adds: “We expect increases in local transport, already heavily penalized by Covid, starting from January when rates and season tickets are usually adjusted. As well as in waste disposal services “. Government action, therefore, according to Toto, must systemically take into account what is happening and must take into account middle-class families “already severely affected in the last year” otherwise there is a risk of “generating new arrears”.