Yesterday another piece was embedded in the wonderful puzzle of debt deflation that we are building, the dollar and yields give a precise indication that in the coming months it will become lethal for all those who have bet on inflation, on reflation …
All enrolled in the school of transience now, pathetic those journalists, economists and analysts who now wonder what is happening, who believe it absurd that rates fall and the dollar rises again in the midst of so much inflation, the daughter of an illusion.
Of course, the dramatic drop in yields is one of the biggest surprises of the last 3 months, but not for us, the only ones in Italy to go against the tide, against everyone.
The beauty is that while everyone is there with their noses up listening to the forecasts of some useless FED governor who would like to raise rates ahead of time, in China they are seriously worried, they are thinking of cutting rates, supporting again ‘economy…
China’s services sector has seen the weakest increases in activity and new jobs in the past 14 months according to the latest Caixin China General Services which fell one step away from contraction to 50.3 from 55.1 in May.
In this context, the market’s expectations on the projections of future Fed rate hikes are simply ridiculous, in fact the bond vigilantes have destroyed the long part of the curve these days by planting a bright red flag in the field of illusions.
As a reminder, 13 out of 18 governors predict an interest rate hike by 2023, I repeat BY 2023, as if nothing happens in 2 years. With most of them expecting to raise the benchmark rate by 0.5 percentage points, a pittance. Ridiculous seven, they would like to raise rates next year. In March, most officials expected to keep rates steady through 2023.
The only thing worth noting in yesterday’s FOMC minutes is that all governors are seriously worried about the new housing bubble…
Several participants pointed out, however, that low interest rates were contributing to the rise in house prices and that valuation pressures in real estate markets could pose risks to financial stability ”.
yesterday after the release of the minutes, the market confirmed its choice and rates will continue to decline.
Yesterday 10-year US Treasury yields fell below 1.30% and 30-year yields smashed the 2% barrier and the US dollar is up, oil is falling sharply as expected, the market has cleared the tale of reflation from the screens of their own illusions.
It took just one second and from 77 dollars the oil dropped to almost 71 …
Behind the stalemate within OPEC over whether to increase oil production is a key member of the cartel with a new strategy: sell as much crude oil as possible before demand runs out.
The UAE strategy, as described by officials familiar with the matter, represents one of the most significant changes in the oil policy of a major Middle Eastern petrostate. For years, the region’s oil-producing governments have said they are not worried about finding crude oil buyers in the distant future. The UAE, which holds some of the largest untapped crude oil reserves in the world, is breaking that orthodoxy, according to people familiar with the strategy.
“This is the time to maximize the value of the country’s hydrocarbon resources, while they have value,” said a person knowledgeable about the UAE’s strategy …
Here is the market response to our forecast yesterday, are you ready for a return to $ 20 a barrel?
In the meantime, the dollar index at the highest for three months, yesterday an unequivocal signal!
As old Rosie says, the 200-day moving average has disintegrated and there is now a crater up to at least 1.60.
There will be a break, Jackson Hole is around the corner, they still bet on the latest illusion, then the last big chance will continue to the end.
BOND BULLS… ENJOY!
The truth is the daughter of time … and debt deflation!
Happy summer to all those who believed in our visions, as always unique, alone against everything and against everyone!
All that remains is the Jackson Hole fairy tale, we have the grand finale!
The manuscripts from the beginning of the year are more than enough to understand how to seize it, the last great opportunity, the most colossal in history, because today they are all on the wrong side of a boat that is about to sink again.
I remind all those who need that ICEBERGFINANZA is also a 360 degree consultancy, in the midst of this perfect storm.
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