AGI – In 2021 the Italian GDP will run more than the German one and will reach + 4.9% this year and next year as well. These are the new forecasts from S&P. The rating agency underlines that the rise is due to the effects of the Recovery. In Germany, on the other hand, GDP will rise by 3.5%.
Last April, Standard & Poor’s had forecast + 4.7%, while in 2022 at 4.2%. The effects on the labor market will be more evident next year: in 2021, the unemployment rate it will settle at 10% while in 2022 it will begin its descent, scoring 9.5%.
Finally, Italian inflation will rise by 1.3% against Germany’s 2.5% for 2021, while next year it will drop to 1.1% (1.3% in Germany).
S&P also revises the Eurozone growth estimate: GDP will rise by 4.4% this year and 4.5% in 2022 (from 4.2 and 4.4% of the previous forecasts). This is because experts see a more substantial effect of fiscal stimuli under the NRP plan, and a weaker contraction of GDP in the first quarter.
In a report, S&P explains that the recovery is shifting to services after starting with industry, as most of the restrictions on economic activity have fueled the propensity to save. “The long-term scars to the economy are likely to be limited by the coordinated European response to fiscal and monetary policy“The report states that Recovery plans could increase GDP between 1.3% and 3.9% in the eurozone over the next five years,” to the benefit of countries such as Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain, and reducing the economic gap in the euro area “.