Weather: SUMMER will explode in JUNE, but with RISKS! TREND next MONTH and PROJECTIONS for JULY and AUGUST
Summer: Official screenings for June, July and AugustThe meteorological summer will officially begin on Tuesday 1 June, which anticipates the astronomical one, at the starting line on 21 June. After a spring that is anything but stable and sunny, now the attention is all turned to June, the month in which the summer could explode and which could reserve many surprises and even some risks. Then we will complete our journey by analyzing the climate projections for July and August, just to have a complete trend for the whole season.
But let’s go in order by analyzing the projections of our official APP, based on the data of European Center.
Spring is about to give way to summer, yet it will reserve a final twist on the photo finish that will affect the weather even in the very first days of June. We are talking about a ‘break-in of cold air that will be able to spread over the Mediterranean causing thunderstorms on several occasions at least until the 2nd June bridge, Republic Day. Then here is the first real turning point thanks to the great comeback of the African anticyclone which will guarantee greater atmospheric stability and above all a marked increase in temperatures starting from 3 and at least for the entire first decade.
Among effects the potential risk of this sudden shift towards a warmer climate should not be underestimated extreme weather events unfortunately, as the news of recent years teaches us.
This is the key point: with the heat rises me too’potential energy at stake and above all i thermal contrasts they come particularly exalted creating a deadly mix for the development of massive storm cells, even up to 10/15 km high. In fact, it happens that after a heat wave in the lower layers of the atmosphere, large quantities of humidity and heat stagnate. Subsequently, at the first fresh and unstable gust at high altitude (usually downhill from Northern Europe), the convective motions (hot air rising) favor the genesis of particularly violent thunderstorms, with high risk of hail and in some cases, rarer, even of tornadoes. These phenomena often affect small areas, which is why the weather forecast in the very short term (nowcasting) in order to alert potentially affected areas as quickly as possible.
SCREENINGS ON JULY AND AUGUST. According to the latest official update, the month of July could spend in the name of great heat over much of Italy with anomaly thermal positive of approx +1°C than the average reference climate (1993-2016). At first glance it might seem a little more degree, but in practice this risks translating into 10/15 days longer than usual with maximum temperatures up to around 32°C: in short, the classic African flares more and more frequent in recent years. A threshold that, combined with the amount of humidity in the air, makes the difference between well-being and the first signs of discomfort.
The Announcements that emerges from the last projection concerns finally August it’s about temperatures. In fact, despite the last few years, at the moment it seems to prevail a ‘anomaly of about + 0,5°C, therefore closer to the reference historical averages than has happened in recent years.
If this were to be confirmed, it is legitimate to expect such a hot month, but without too many excesses, not overwhelming as often happened in the last summer seasons: in short, the classic Italian summer, typical of the 70s / 80s.
While there is a certain margin of uncertainty, the above it’s all true; in fact, it is not a question of far-fetched predictions, but of the main one scenario proposed by the very authoritative European Center.
African anticyclone comeback on Italy from 3 June: more sun and warmer Temperature Anomaly Expected for July (ECMWF)