The hunting season continues in Piazza Affari. 2021 is giving investors satisfaction with international financial markets that set new records while the Milanese index is one step away from the highs of 2008, having recovered all the ground lost after the outbreak of the pandemic. The increase in risk appetite is felt with a return of interest not only in fundamentals but also in terms ofappeal speculative. Since the beginning of the year, 7 companies have been subject to a takeover bid, or a purchase offer for the majority share capital aimed at withdrawing the share from the list. The latest in chronological order are those of Generali on Cattolica and the Spanish fund Asterion on Retelit. In both cases the premium compared to the pre-announcement prices of 11%. Values that rise to 30% if we consider the average price of the previous 12 months. But the market is already betting on new announcements, even of significant size, thanks to the persistence of low interest rates that make this type of operation convenient.
The Economy of the Corriere della Sera took stock of the situation by reviewing large cap stocks. The results are shown in the table alongside. The spy that ignites the interest of speculation is called floating, the percentage of shares that can be bought freely on the market. The higher this value, the more a company that is contestable, that is, scalable by anyone interested in acquiring control.
There are obviously some stakes to respect. In particular the so-called golden power which allows the State to intervene in matters of collective interest such as in the case of vetoes on particular operations of strategic interest or takeover bids by foreign companies. happened for the credit from Valtellina, whose hunter, Crdit Agricole, had to wait for the go-ahead from the Prime Minister to proceed with the completion of his offer. Situation that also concerns the bid launched on Retelit by the Asterion fund, which entered the capital of the group last October, with 28.7% of the capital and which subsequently decided to take over the entire control of the leading group in the telecommunications field ultra-broadband.
According to the analysis of The Economy of the Corriere della Sera the spotlight could be focused above all on securities in the banking sector and in particular Unicredit, Banco Bpm and to a lesser extent Bper. All three companies have free float rates of over 85%, making them contestable on paper. The future of Unicredit oscillates between the role of hunter and prey. In the first case, the objective would be to acquire Banca Monte dei Paschi, according to some a poisoned pill with the aim of making the bank bigger but also less attractive for potential buyers due to the costs of the restructuring.
In the meantime, the stock on the stock market, since the beginning of the year, has jumped by 39%, about 20 points more than the index of blue chips. Banco Bpm performed even better. The Milanese institute has several options on the table, both as a prey and as a hunter or rather as an aggregator. The market seems to favor the first hypothesis or a hostile offer as happened in the case of Intesa Sanpaolo on Ubi Banca. Result: the stock has gained over 64% since the beginning of the year.
A Moncler prey outside the financial enclosure. The company is following an autonomous growth path as demonstrated by the offer launched at the end of last December on Stone Island, but the goal could also be to become too big a bite for any predators. The founder Remo Ruffini himself declared that he had had proposals for aggregation with larger operators. All returned to the sender to defend their independence. A strategist who has contributed to curbing, for now, the appetites of speculation: since the beginning of the year the stock has traded at + 15% in line with the performance of the Ftse Mib index. The Ferragamo dossier is warmer as it is carrying out a restructuring program with some difficulties. In this case, the family firmly holds control with a 66% stake. The hunter must agree with the prey. Spotlight also on Cnh Industrial. The company boasts an important positioning on the US market which could benefit from the mammoth support plan for the real economy of the White House which would bring the federal state budget to 6 trillion dollars. Enough to hypothesize the appetite of industrial or financial operators on the control of the group which has a 73% free float.