FQChart is the weekly arithmetic average of the polls on voting intentions of Italians exclusively for Il Fatto Quotidiano. All the polls published by the major polling institutions in the week just ended contribute to the average.
Week from 31/5 to 6/6/2021
The two parties that have characterized the political history of the last 25 years are those at the center of the most interesting movements of the week. Unfortunately, for both, in the negative. Be Come on Italy that the Democratic party in fact, they lose half a point in a week.
Silvio Berlusconi’s party reaches about 7% on average, despite the good 9% of Tecnè (but with trend negative also for this institute). Already other times in the last three years “the blues” have seemed close to oblivion, but they have always managed to find their centrality on the political scene riding the events (read the end of the yellow-green government or the birth of the Draghi government). This time, however, the signs seem different.
The health conditions of the founder – more and more dancers and shrouded in mystery – the advance of Giorgia Meloni, the ambitious project “Coraggio Italia” by the Toti-Brugnaro duo, the rivalries that have never subsided between the parliamentarians send out signals of trip that the electorate, now tired, intercepts. And the gossip or ambiguous statements about a federation / merger with the League Forza Italia’s performance in surveys could worsen even more.
The Democratic Party (18.6%) is experiencing a similar situation, suspended between continuous relaunches and steps backwards from the famous political elections of March 2018. Today it has lost the status of the second Italian party behind the Lega (a result to which it had led Nicola Zingaretti) it is no longer taboo to assume that its maximum potential is around 20%, without forgetting, however, the two splits suffered in 2019 (ItaliaViva e Action).
A bit of momentum, however, could return with the victories in the administrative next autumn, provided that the Movement leads Giuseppe Conte (16.5%, +0.3 this week) does not push the Dems even further down.
All the other parties remained almost stable: Lega (21.3%, -0.1), Fratelli d’Italia (19.1%), LeU (3.7%), Action (3.2%, +0, 2), IV (2.2%, +0.2).
(Institutes considered: Swg, Tecnè, Index R., Noto, Piepoli, Emg)