Record weekend in Italy for the administration of Covid vaccine: on Saturday and Sunday, 600,000 injections were achieved in the space of twenty-four hours, well exceeding one million doses in two days. On Saturday there were 598,582 inoculations, but the number is expected to grow further in the next few hours, while last Friday the all-time record of 607,000 vaccinations was recorded. A fast pace that bodes well for the achievement of herd immunity, scheduled for mid-September. “The month of July will be the complete and absolute turning point – explains the Undersecretary of Health, Pierpaolo Sileri – we will have exceeded half of the population with at least one dose of vaccine and by September-October it is expected to achieve community protection”.
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Lazio, immunity at the end of August, Campania first
According to the projections of Lab24 del Sole 24Ore, maintaining the rapid trend of the last week it would take 89 days to cover 70% of the population and the result would be reached on 4 September. Although with differences from one Region to another: first to cross the finish line would be Campania in July, followed in August by five other Regions and all the others in September with the exception of the Province of Trento, the only one to slip in October. In Campania at the moment the first inoculated doses are 2,622,677 (over a million recalls) with which a total of 3.7 million doses are exceeded out of just over 4 million vials delivered. Out of a population of 5,679,759 residents, therefore, just over 3 million remain to be vaccinated, at least with one dose. Currently 45.8% of the population has received at least one dose and 19.1% have been fully vaccinated, thus proceeding at this speed it is expected that by 18 July Campania will have 75% of the protected population.
Second to reach the goal Abruzzo, which plans to celebrate August with herd immunity as announced by the president of the region, Marco Marsilio. And Lombardy too should achieve the result in the same days: after more than 103,000 administrations carried out on Friday, “we are quickly approaching 70% of the vaccinated population. A percentage that would mean the achievement of community immunity ”, writes the vice president and councilor for Welfare Letizia Moratti on social networks. Then it will be the turn of Puglia (August 26), Molise (August 29) and Lazio (August 30). Tuscany, on the other hand, will have to wait a little longer: «With the vaccines we receive, that is, 30,000 per day and 900,000 per month, herd immunity will be achieved by the end of September. However, the more doses arrive, the more widespread our possibility of vaccinating and preventing what may be the potential re-growth of the infection from Covid-19 », explains Governor Eugenio Giani. Satisfied because «the vaccination initiative for high school students and spouses is well received. There is a continuous demand ».
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THE PERPLESSITIES OF VIROLOGISTS
But one thing is the herd immunity decreed by numbers, the real one is another, as Sergio Abrignani, member of the Technical Scientific Committee warns. «Today it is difficult to estimate if and when we will reach herd immunity – he warns – because we do not know to what extent the vaccinated, although sheltered from the disease, are not contagious. It is not known exactly how many are protected from asymptomatic infection. On the one hand, as an immunologist, I share the uncertainty of the virologist Anthony Fauci, on the other I think it is very important to set goals and imagine that in September we could achieve group immunity ». In the meantime, when will we equal Britain which has been stuck on one, two victims a day from Covid-19 for weeks? “I hope by the end of June – estimates the expert – To get down to these levels, however, we will have to vaccinate most of the susceptible to the serious effects of the virus and about 2.5 million over-sixties are still missing”.
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