The forecasts converge towards a rebound of the Italian GDP between 4-5% both in 2021 and in 2022. But the writer, analyzing the most recent data on economic confidence, on the transformation of part of savings into consumption and the tendency to accelerate investments by companies (favored by an expansive situation in the financial environment), as well as higher-than-expected tourist flows and the pace of global recovery and therefore of our exports, estimates that the potential for a rebound in GDP 2021 is between 7% and 8%. Therefore he wonders what more could be done to get to that level.
And it does so because in the two-year period 2021-22 there is the possibility not only of repairing the damage of the pandemic (loss of GDP of 8.9% in 2020 and almost a million unemployed), but also that of recovering a marked decade from a recession / stagnation from which the Italian economy has not yet completely healed.
On the macro level, this recovery can be estimated as a growth of 12% in the two-year period while now the estimates see it around 8%. But, in fact, the potential is between 12% and 13%. And it is for the completely extraordinary conditions of both monetary and fiscal policy, but that will end in 2023 when the European rules are restored. So it’s a golden two-year period, an opportunity not to be missed.
How? First of all, this opportunity should be pointed out because there is too much satisfaction in the political environment regarding the current trends. This should be followed by a national “plus” push project for the two-year period. For which the writer believes that it is not necessary to invent particular magic, but simply to make the market freer and less taxed. It will be its dynamism, then, to saturate the potential.
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