The international agency Fitch has maintained, as expected by analysts, its judgment (BBB- with stable outlook), which keeps government bonds safe from surprises under the protective hood of ECB purchases and hopes of recovery fueled by the Recovery Plan, which will try to make the post-pandemic rebound structural. Fitch expects a 4.8% GDP growth for Italy in 2021, supported by a strong recovery in the second half of the year. The best estimate of + 4.5% estimated last December 4th.
In 2022 + 4.3%
In 2022, GDP is expected to grow by 4.3%. According to the agency, Italy could return to the pre-pandemic levels of the fourth quarter of 2019 in the fourth quarter of 2022. (AGI) Gaa (Segue) 050000 GIU 21 (AGI) – Rome, 4 Jun. – Mario Draghi’s government, Fitch predicts, could last until March 2023, when the next elections are scheduled, and at least until the elections for the President of the Republic in February 2022 ”. In addition, the government intends to make reforms focused on public administration, justice and competitiveness. A reform of the tax system on the agenda but could take longer – Fitch observes – Reform efforts in these areas by previous governments have not been successful given the unpopularity of the reforms. The government has a large majority but support comes from different parties, which could complicate the approval of the reforms.
Public debt at 160% of GDP
According to Fitch, the Italian public debt in 2021 should be around 160% of GDP. this, explains Fitch, is the forecast of the Italian government, which also predicts that the debt will be reduced to 153% in 2024. Italy’s GDP, explains Fitch, supported by a diversified and high value-added economy, by belonging to the Eurozone, by GDP per capita and by much stronger governance indicators than that of the parigroup countries: In addition, supported by moderate private sector indebtedness and a surplus on the current account. Italy also benefits – explains Fitch – from the ECB’s large-scale quantitative easing (Qe) programs. Italy, says Fitch, will also benefit from the investment stimulus provided by the Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds. However, the note continues, the Covid-19 pandemic continues to exert a significant negative impact on the Italian economy and public finances. A very high public debt and structurally weak economic growth weigh on the rating.