Weather: It will NOT be the usual SUMMER! We explain WHY. TREND for JUNE and the SCREENINGS for JULY and AUGUST
Summer: forecasts for the rest of June, advances for July and AugustIt could be a different summer than usual. A confirmation comes to us from the latest seasonal updates available to us.
If the spring just passed was characterized by a lot of rainfall and temperatures almost always subdued, this is it trend is likely to continue for the month of June, at least in terms of instability and precipitation, with the possibility of different phases to say the least storm, especially on some regions.
And the rest of the summer as it will be? To answer this question we have analyzed the latest ones official screenings with advances for July and August, which provide us with an overview of temperatures and rains expected in our country for the key months of the next season. Without forgetting thesanitary emergency not yet completely eradicated and the vaccination issue, which will require many Italians to take holidays conditioned by the dates of inoculation of the serum: in short, a different season awaits us from the one we were used to in recent years.
Despite in the next days the African anticyclone will be able to spread out over a large part of the Mediterranean basin, guaranteeing more sun and lots of heat over Italy, something risks ruining the plans for the summer season that has just begun. In fact, broadening our gaze at the hemispheric level, it emerges as the next weeks of June they will likely be conditioned by a perm low pressure area on the Atlantic sector which on several occasions could send unstable and fresh impulses at high altitude capable of unleashing violent thunderstorms. Most at risk with this type of configurations will be the Northern regions and part of those of the Center with the classic afternoon thunderstorms typical of this season.
If June is going to be variable / unstable, what will happen in the rest of the summer?
NEXT MONTHS TREND. The latest official update for the month of July leans towards the possible arrival of the great heat over a large part of our country, with anomaly thermal positive of approx +1°C than the average reference climate (1993-2016). At first glance it might seem a little more degree, but in practice this risks translating into 10/15 days longer than usual with maximum temperatures up to around 35°C: in short, the classic African flare-ups that are increasingly extreme and frequent in the last decade. A threshold that, combined with the amount of humidity in the air, makes the difference between well-being and the first signs of discomfort.
The Announcements that emerges from the last projection concerns finally August it’s about temperatures. In fact, despite the last few years, at the moment it seems to prevail a ‘anomaly of about + 0,5°C, therefore closer to the reference historical averages. If this were to be confirmed, it is legitimate to expect such a hot month, but without too many excesses, not overwhelming as often happened in the last summer seasons: in short, the classic Italian summer, typical of the 70s / 80s.
While there is a certain margin of uncertainty, the above it’s all true; in fact, it is not a question of far-fetched predictions, but of the main one scenario proposed by the very authoritative European Center.
Pressure anomaly on the Atlantic sector: next weeks with frequent thunderstormsTemperature Anomaly Expected for July (ECMWF)