The sleeping beauty in the woods of the world stock exchanges has woken up. Yesterday the Piazza Affari FtseMib index reached 25,553 points, a share that had not reached since the first week of October 2008, in the midst of the Lehman Brothers crisis. Since then, in these almost 13 years, the Italian stock exchange had always remained below those levels, in blissful solitude: the German stock market, like other Europeans, had already recovered to pre-Lehman levels since 2014; Tokyo a year earlier; Wall Street since 2011. Milan has nothing: for 13 years it has been forgotten by the great world investors. Awakening yesterday. Not casual. “It has been at least three months – says a manager who reads the reports of the best analysts on the market every day – that the Italian Stock Exchange has attracted interest: those looking for new yields, difficult to express from markets that have gone to the maximum, discover that Italy stood still 13 years ago. And the difference, compared to before, is now made by its current premier: Mario Draghi ».
Thus, since yesterday, this leitmotiv that has been circulating for weeks among those who read the Financial Times and the Economist in the world, begins to become more concrete. And it is no coincidence that, just yesterday, it was the Prime Minister himself who came out on the subject: “All the international bodies – he said on a visit to the entrepreneurs of the Modena ceramic district – are revising their forecasts on the Italian economy “.
The index then closed yesterday’s session a little lower, at 25,320 (+ 0.6%), but the essence of the matter does not change. And it combines well with the numbers coming from Istat, which has revised the economic data of the GDP at the end of March (quarter on quarter), from -0.4% to + 0.1%, with a positive sign; while the trend decline (year on year) is reduced from -1.4% to -0.8% (compared to -6.5% recorded in the previous quarter). The so-called variation acquired for 2021 is already equal to + 2.6% and induces optimism on the part of the year that remains: seven months out of 12 starting on a basis of 35 million vaccinated, almost half of which with two doses; the reopening well underway, a health situation under control and a horizon where the umpteenth waves of the virus are replaced by the advancement of vaccinations.
A picture that, if we assume a recovery in consumption which has been compressed for a year and a half, gives hope for results that are still able to surprise. “The important and unexpected revision carried out by Istat on the GDP trend in the first quarter is a figure that consolidates the expectations of a recovery that could exceed 4.5% in 2021”, the Confcommercio analysts write. association that gathers a category among the most affected by the crisis of these first two years of the current decade.
Also on the labor front, positive signals arrived yesterday. Any enthusiasm, in the face of about 800 thousand fewer employees than in February 2020, would be inappropriate. But what must be understood, at this stage, is the underlying trend: in April, the increase in employment is reflected in a positive balance of over 120 thousand employed compared to January 2021. A growth, writes Istat, which involves both gender components and is concentrated among temporary employees.