“By mid-July, Italy will also bring down the lethality of the virus by 90%” Matteo Villa, researcher dell’Ispi, who analyzed the Italian epidemiological picture in an interview granted to Day. “We are also experiencing a collapse in deaths – says Villa – eight doses out of ten doses of vaccine go to over 60s, and by the end of June we should be able to protect all the people most exposed to the risk of death. Covid will become as dangerous as seasonal flu ” supports the researcher of the Institute for International Political Studies.
Matteo Villa then analyzes the first steps of the executive at the dawn of the spread of the virus: “We made the wrong strategy in January. We accelerated on sanitary ware, even if it was important, but left behind the most fragile of all. We have lost almost a month and a half of time. If we had operated differently, we would have avoided 13,000 deaths, instead of the 7,000 we estimated. But now we are doing really well, we are using the doses we have as best we can. “The future scenarios seem to smile at Italy. The expert expects around 50 deaths a day.” With the reopenings, unlike Germany and the United Kingdom, we left a little early, without waiting for the virus to circulate low “.
“By mid-July, the chance of ending up in resuscitation is expected to drop by 75% – Villa continues – while that of ending up in the hospital 65%. This means that in July, if the virus were to start circulating again for some reason as in October, instead of 4 thousand people hospitalized in intensive care we could only have a thousand, with much less pressure on the hospitals “. As far as the vaccination campaign is concerned, according to the expert we should reach full capacity” after mid-May. Today we are around 410-420 thousand doses. Half a million doses is a symbol. The vaccination campaign, which was saved by Pfizer, given that the deliveries of AstraZeneca are hiding, is fine even with these figures “.
“At the beginning we had estimated a drop in lethality by the end of June” points out Matteo Villa “but we discovered that vaccines protect against death not in 99% of cases, but in 85%. For this we had to revise the estimates. Missed deliveries have to do with it up to a certain point “. The researcher is certain: the virus will continue to circulate, especially among the youngest.” In rich countries, the goal will be to safeguard the most fragile people with recalls, as happens for the seasonal flu “hypothesizes Matteo Villa.