A journey in stages conditioned by a single unknown: the delivery of the doses in the foreseen times and quantities. In May 17 million ampoules are destined for Italy, in June another 30. Now that the machine has just been fully operational, respecting the commissioner’s program to the letter Son — 500 thousand administrations per day (508,158 on April 29, yesterday a little less according to estimates) – all that remains is to hope that supplies will arrive on time, like a Swiss watch describing what has become the model Pfizer. Regular doses, on a weekly basis, delivered to the vaccination hubs according to their own logistics network: a method that allows the use of vials to be reduced by at least 24 hours by the regions that otherwise get lost in transit from Pratica di Mare, the point of arrival. of the other serums.
Doubts concern AstraZeneca of which are expected 7 million vials in two months. Also necessary for the calls to be made to one and a half million Italians, mainly school and military personnel. Yesterday Gianni Rezza, director of prevention of the Ministry of Health, confirmed that nothing has changed: the recalls will be made with the Vaxzevria serum, even for the under 60s of which the EMA has only recommended its use for those beyond this threshold, not prohibiting it for others .
(who the special of the Corriere on the data of the vaccination campaign)
The timing for et
If this cruising speed were to be respected without heavy reductions in supplies we could find ourselves facing thestart of the massive campaign starting between 15 and 20 May. The conditional is mandatory, but the projections of the commissioner structure – confirmed by almost all the regions – indicate that once the majority of the over 65s are safe, the parallel phase designed by commissioner Figliuolo will open.
We will start with the campaign of corporate vaccination because workers must have a fast track to get the country going again. At least 732 vaccination points will be added to the current network involving all the large companies that have already contacted the commissioner structure and the regions, a large part of which adheres to Confindustria which drew up the program. Some – the most equipped – may even become ASL centers to vaccinate not only their employees but also the local community. In those same days, most of the over 60s who remain will be vaccinated and coverage of the 55-59 age range will begin, for which many regions are opening reservations in these days.
The coverage of the fragile
These will be the decisive days to cover above all all Italians in category 4 according to the recommendations of the Higher Institute of Health: that is, the frail under 60 whose bookings have just started in most of the regions. The adhesions for the 50-54 age group will realistically open around 17 May, indicate some regions such as Veneto, Piedmont and Lombardy. Usually the difference between booking and administration can be quantified in the order of 20-25 days. A time lag that allows you to give a precise projection of the vaccine curve if there are no breakpoints, ie missed deliveries or precautionary suspension of some vaccine. Subsequent bookings will decrease with age.
At the end of May, most of the regions register, will start memberships for the 45-49 age group which then will go to puncture around June 20.
The range 40-44 years slitter of about ten days and should be covered by the first decade of July.
Herd immunity at 60% expected in late July and 80% in September. In line with the plan.
The tables on over 60s
clear that for it is necessary to proceed in these days with the 60-69 and 70-79 age bracket, those most at risk for Covid lethality.
The over 80 range is almost covered, net of the suspicious and unreachable who in Sicily reach high peaks (only 69.1% of Sicilians received the first dose) also due to the resistance against AstraZeneca.
For the over 70s, these are the central days of the campaign and the thrust of the 500 thousand bites affects them above all. Basilicata, Calabria, Sicily and Sardinia as of April 29 are still below 50% in the first dose. On the over 60s – who come to life in a few days – Tuscany, Umbria, Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia have covered only one in five. Few, still few, with this number of infections.