Covid, is the braking of infections coming? The experts: “We are at the plateau but the descent is not taken for granted”

In the midst of a wave of record infections, the wait is for the arrival of the now famous peak. That is, that situation that mathematicians and physicists explain as a settlement of the growth of numbers up to zero and thus undertake a progressive descent. The moment is expected for the end of January and the data of the last few hours are beginning to suggest a start towards the long-awaited plateau. The speed of the growth of infections is decreasing: this is an increase in new cases compared to the previous 7 days equal to a slight 20%. Basically you run more slowly. It is useful to say that it is still a race at a high pace. Almost 190 thousand contagions per day are anything but normal. But the slowdown in growth is a fundamental fact to understand the actual accuracy of the mathematical forecasts made so far by technicians and experts.

Quarantine and finished parties

Like the mathematical model of the CNR (explained in Open by the president of the Department of Physical Sciences Corrado Spinella), suggests: “the criterion of the movement of people” is one of the fundamental indicators for calculating the level of spread of the virus on the national territory. It is no coincidence that the current braking occurs at a time when it appears in isolation at least 1 out of 10 Italians, with 2.4 million positives. If we add to this figure the close contacts brought to stay at home for logistical reasons, as in the case of infected children or frailties, we reach about 6 million people. Isolation from Covid-19 inevitably also means less social life, less crowded restaurants and public places, offices and companies in smart working. Basically a mini lockdown not imposed by the government but forced by the contraction of the virus. In addition to the infections, there is also the post-Christmas holiday effect contributing to the braking. After the time for dinners, meetings between relatives and friends and white weeks, the risky movements have decreased, consequently favoring a lower circulation of the virus as well. And all this despite the Omicron effect, a contagious variant 5 times more than Delta and now, according to the latest ISS data, dominant on the national territory at 81%.

“Beware of blunder from missing tracking”

“I say this with caution,” said prof. Fabrizio Pregliasco in the last hours, «but the price we are paying to Omicron, with many people who will contaginate, could drastically reduce the audience of the susceptible. This could be it the last big wave that we should undergo, for the next one we should wait for autumn ». But there is a “but”. The virologist warns about the possibility of not seeing the descent after the peak due to the reopening of schools. Possibility also underlined by the coordinator of the Covidstat data site and physicist Daniele Pedrini: «The descent should not be taken for granted. There is also the possibility that due to the high contagiousness more than many tampons we will not be able to perform and that therefore at a certain point the number of positives found will stop. But braking won’t mean a descent ».

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