The the latest are 6.1 million resistant to the vaccine, but 600 thousand in less than 20 days ago. Afraid, wary, ideologically convinced that it is better not to do it. Yesterday the administrations since the beginning of the vaccination campaign exceeded 100 million; in the last update of 19 only 36 thousand stings were missing, which will be accounted for only today by the regions. A campaign that has become a success that now, however, risks presenting a bottleneck: many are asking to do the third dose with Pfizer, whose stocks have dwindled to 2.5 million. If everyone were to focus on the German-American preparation, the waiting times for receiving it could reach a month. But the accordion-like trend of the vaccination campaign in recent months has also been influenced by the government’s strategies.
The downturn in July
On 11 July there is a first alarm bell. Population vaccination coverage projections are starting to get complicated. There is a non-proportional decline in the first doses. The commissioner structure, led by Francesco Figliuolo, monitors the administration curve on a daily basis, putting the data under the lens that testifies to how many are expanding the audience of the immunized. That number is reported to Palazzo Chigi. At the end of the day, 53,961 received the first dose: the lowest figure since mid-February. The booking platforms of the regions have vacancies. Two weeks later, on July 23, the government fires the first Green Pass decree which would have made it mandatory from 6 August for a series of social activities while retaining the possibility of obtaining it through the certificate of negativity of a tampon. The Delta variant had just become dominant with a transmissibility index higher than the previous ones between 40 and 60%. On that day, the government report recorded almost 2.5 million unvaccinated between the ages of 50 and 59, over 1.3 million between the ages of 60 and 69, and 713 thousand between the ages of 70 and 79. The objectives then changed: up to that moment, a first community coverage of 80% of vaccinated people over 12 had been envisaged by the end of September. In that ten days, the first doses never exceed 150 thousand per day. So the projections in the hands of the government photograph a fact: without an incentive for the administration, that lens not only slipped over time but also risked being no longer adequate.
The first squeeze
A first tightening was decided according to a progressive restriction mechanism used up to now. Between the announcement and the entry into force of the first Green Pass the curve undergoes a jolt, it starts to travel upwards again with peaks of 170 thousand new adherents per day (such as 5 August) or even 180 thousand on 6 August. In the following days, what is called a settlement happens. It is the phase in which the controls must be strengthened otherwise the imagined constraints become only potential. The new vaccinated curve it remains high shortly afterwards and then decreases thanks to the August holidays: from 173 thousand on 10 August it gradually begins to descend. At the end of August we travel around 120-130 thousand a day, a good pace that allows the achievement of the target of 80% of full-cycle covers on 11 October.
The new goal
In the meantime, however, the bar is set higher: the CTS and the Ministry of Health converge on the need to reach 90% of immunized people over 12, thanks to the arrival of the Delta, and the end of the year is set to reach it. That means nearly 5 million more to fish even among those who are staunch opponents of Big Pharma. On 24 September the second squeeze is decided to reach the target. On that day, government sources said there were about 2.5 million unvaccinated employees. Too many. Between the ages of 50 and 59, the no-vaxes were still 1.59 million (almost 900 thousand in less than two months earlier), 902 thousand between the ages of 60 and 69 (425 thousand less than in July), 508 thousand between the ages of 70 and 79 ( 205 thousand less than in July). The government therefore fires a second decree that establishes from 15 October the obligation of the Certificate in the workplace. In the three weeks that pass between the announcement and the provision, yet another rebound of the first doses starts, even for effect of the time it takes two weeks from the first puncture to get it. On 24 September, 86 thousand first doses were registered. On 14 October it climbs to 76,061, on the 15th over 71 thousand and then diminishes in the following days. Already on October 31 there are only 7,400 new vaccinated, November 1 5,500, November 7 7,163. Few. The epidemiological scenario becomes complicated.
Vaccination effectiveness begins to decline in all age groups, an advance is decided 5 months after the recall, the unvaccinated are still 6.7 million on November 19th. On the 24th comes the third squeeze: the government decides on the Green Pass strengthened from 6 December for all social activities. Excluding the swab as a means of discharging it. The Commissioner’s report registers on 3 December 414 thousand unvaccinated between 70 and 79 years (almost 115 thousand less than in September), about 690 thousand “discovered” between 60 and 69 years (257 thousand in less than mid-September), 1 million 130 thousand between 50 and 59 years (over 568 thousand in less than two months earlier). The effect is immediate. On November 20, the first doses were just 17 thousand, from the 24 onwards they travel at the rate of almost 30 thousand a day, a threshold exceeded in early December thanks to the approach of the date of 6 where the first doses record a boom: over 43 thousand. There are now just over two percentage points to 90%. Not so many, considering that now the audience is expanding with the 5-11 age range and probably in the coming months to children under 5. The target of 60 million vaccinated is unrealistic, but getting close is what is needed.