what impact on GDP in Italy?

Variante Omicron e GDP in Italy: what impact?

While we await certain news on the characteristics of the new strain, analysts and economists are wondering about the potential effect of a wave of infections dominated by the latest discovery variant.

In our country 2021 is estimated with a Gross domestic product in strong rebound, even over 6%: what will happen if Omicron spreads, forcing closures and stops to international trade?

The scenario is outlined in the Nadef, when it comes to adverse events: what effects can the Omicron variant have on economic growth in Italy?

Italy: can the Omicron variant curb GDP? Estimates

Not only fourth wave: 202 risks closing in the worst way with the spread, also in Italy, of the variante Omicron.

Although protected by vaccinations and by measures such as the super green pass arriving to guarantee the holidays, our country could be forced to other stricter restrictions, with stops to travel and movements already started in the world.

In this context, economic forecasts can potentially undergo changes. On the other hand, it was Nadef 2021, an update note to the Mef economy and finance document, that gave indications in this sense by reasoning on hypothetical risk scenarios.

As we read in the document:

“The first scenario contemplates a hypothesis of lower efficacy of vaccines in front of new variants emerging of Covid-19. This would induce the authorities to reintroduce restrictions for some economic activities in the last quarter of the current year, which could also extend to the first half of 2022. These restrictions, however, would have a lower degree of pervasiveness than that experienced in the recent past, as vaccination coverage among the population is in any case high and the green pass mandatory for numerous activities, it helps to limit the spread of infections “

In numerical terms, it is expected that with newer strains and lower vaccine effect with further restrictions the National GDP may lose 0.5 percentage points in 2021, 1.4 percentage points in 2022 to recover 1.8 percentage points in 2023.

If he world trade were affected by restrictions and therefore presented as less sustained, the impact on the national Gross Domestic Product could be a loss of 0.1 pp in 2021 and 0.4 pp in 2022.

It was also specified that “In the case of the two scenarios [sopra descritti], both referring to the onset of difficulties in containing the virus, were assessed jointly, in 2021 and 2022 product growth rates would be lower than the baseline scenario, respectively, by 0.6 and 1.8 for hundred.”

With the arrival of the variante Omicron some adverse conditions described may occur.

New strain and economic recovery: watch out for tourism and trust

The Secretary General of the World Tourism Organization Zurab Pololikashvili immediately raised the alarm: with the new restrictions on global travel in response to the Omicron variant, the recovery of tourism is at risk.

2021 should also close with high losses for the world sector, which can be assessed in 2 trillion dollars compared to the pre-pandemic time.

And in Italy? The fears related to the strain Omicron could result in the cancellation of trips and holidays organized for the Christmas time. Before the pandemic, 10 million Italians were on the move for the holidays, with a value of 4.1 billion euros of pre-pandemic spending.

What will happen to winter and Christmas tourism with the Omicron variant and possible restrictions? The alarm was raised by Coldiretti: “This is an evolution destined to have effects not only on the ski slopes but on the entire induced nature of holidays in the mountains, from the activity of the mountain huts to the agritourisms already hit hard by last year’s limitations.”

Confesercenti also highlighted the consumer confidence aspect, down in November for the first time since July. The data refers to the first 15 days of the month and did not fully consider the fourth wave alert and the arrival of the Omicron variant: the family trust and consumption, therefore, can suffer still other significant reductions.

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