GDP: Csc, strong rebound in 2021, towards + 6.3 / 6.4% – Economy

GDP: Csc, strong rebound in 2021, towards + 6.3 / 6.4% – Economy
GDP: Csc, strong rebound in 2021, towards + 6.3 / 6.4% – Economy

“Thanks to the robust rebound in the third quarter and improved data for the first, 2021 could close with Italian GDP at + 6.3 / 6.4%, more than expected in October”. Thus the Confindustria Study Center in its November flash situation, explaining that “it would return to the pre-Covid level in the first quarter of 2022, a result that is not obvious given the missed recoveries in previous crises”. In the fourth quarter, however, “the expected slowdown is emerging, due to the scarcity of raw materials and semi-finished products and the resurgence of infections in Italy and Europe, which make the high uncertainty persist”, warns the CSC. The rebound is driven by private consumption, estimated to rise further in the third and fourth quarters, underlines the Csc, explaining that consumer confidence in October-November “decreased slightly, remaining high”, while orders from producers of goods of consumption “have recovered again”. Conversely, “high energy prices act as a brake”. The industry slows down “but it is growing”, underlines the CSC, investments are also growing, services continue to recover and the number of employees is on the rise. On the other hand, the Italian export of goods is slowing down.

The expensive energy “penalizes” Italian companies and families. This was underlined by the Confindustria Study Center, explaining that oil and natural gas “matter a lot” also for the budget of Italian families, as shown by the weights of energy goods in the consumption basket, the one on the basis of which inflation is calculated: electricity and gas for homes reach 4.5%, transport fuels to 3.8%. “Therefore, energy accounts for 8.3% of the consumption basket”, highlights the Csc. In order to assess the impact of the cost of energy, we must also consider “the high dependence of our country on foreign countries with regard to fossil fuels”, explains the note from the CSC. In fact, although Italy is a non-negligible producer of oil and gas, “89% of oil, 94% of gas, 100% of coal are imported”.

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