Irpef reform, the majority agreement benefits above all the (few) with incomes around 50 thousand euros. Crumbs for low to medium wages

For now it is only a political agreement, pending the green light from Palazzo Chigi and to be translated into amendments to the Budget law. If the picture that emerged from the majority meeting on Thursday is confirmed, the income tax cut for a total of 7 billion euros it will benefit to the greatest extent those who have income between 40 e i 50 thousand euros a year, with the peak at just 50 thousand. The victory of the “middle class“? Only in the declarations of the parties. According to the latest analysis by the Finance Department, the figure declared by employees and of 21 thousand euros on average (24 thousand for those with stable contracts, 9,600 euros for those who have had only fixed-term contracts). And theevasion in this case it has nothing to do with it, since it is a category that by definition does not escape the meshes of the tax authorities. Yet the first simulations show that this income bracket will have minimal benefits. “The Draghi government offers one pizza to the workers it’s a starred dinner for managers“, Is the summary made by Giovanni Paglia, national economics manager of Italian left. In short, equity is not at the top of the list of priorities, nor does the desire to push consumption, given that, as is well known, the propensity to spend every additional euro decreases as income rises.

The agreement reached at the table summoned to the Treasury by the minister Daniele Franco (see table opposite) provides that the lower rate remains at 23% and those intermediate they go from three to two, 25% for the 15-28 thousand euro range – today at 27% – e 35% (from 38%) for incomes from 28 to 50 thousand euros, while the bracket al 41% is abolished and the higher rate remains at 43% but it applies over 50 thousand euros instead of giving 75mil as is the case today. However, it does not mean who earns 51mil euro and today falls into the bracket to which 38% applies from next year will pay more. In fact, it is necessary to consider that each rate affects only the part of income that exceeds the maximum ceiling set for the previous bracket. So a worker with a salary of 51 thousand euros per year will enjoy a savings remarkable because he too will benefit from the cut in intermediate rates.

The first elaborations, it must be said, disregard the review of deductions which will go in parallel with the birth ofsingle check and from the absorption of Renzi bonus increased to 100 euros last year, aspects on which the square has yet to be found. But they agree that the most substantial net savings will be obtained precisely at quota 50mil. That income bracket, which today falls within the 28-55 thousand bracket to which the rate of 38%, from 2022 it will in fact be taxed at 35%: the net tax to be paid will go from over 15,100 euros to about 14,200 euros, well 920 euro less (€ 76.6 per month). Taxpayers with income from 40 thousand euros, for which they prefigure 620 per year more available. Worse will go to those who earn 30 thousand euros: it will save 320. The advantage decreases specularly also going up: 570 euros per year for income of 60 thousand euros, 270 euro gives 75 thousand euros upward.

But, despite the progressivity, the benefits are much smaller for those who arrive at the end of the month with difficulty. The average employee, who, as seen, earns about 20 thousand euros, with unchanged deductions he will pay 4,700 euros against the current 4,800 and will therefore find himself alone in his pocket 100 euros more per year: 8.3 euros per month. For who is it under 15 thousand euros, like most of the seasonal and workers part-time, nothing changes because the rate remains at 23%. And this group of poor workers is likely to find themselves too mocked from the new check for i sons, which according to the first simulations could turn out to be lower than the sum between the maximum level of the allowance for the family unit and the deductions (which from next March will both be replaced by the allowance). There no tax area, ie the threshold below which no taxes are paid, remains unchanged at 8,174 euros: it is raised slightly only for retired and self-employed persons.

All that remains is to hope for a careful remodeling of the deductions, because as it is the new architecture raises many doubts. The first concerns precisely the equity of the intervention, certainly not inspired by a progressive redistribution. “TO parliamentarians and government has succeeded in the arduous feat of obtaining a tax cuts on their salaries higher than that for millions of part-time, seasonal, blue-collar and low-income workers. I thought it was politically unjustifiable. Touchè ”, he commented via Twitter Tommaso Faccio, Professor of Tax Law at Nottingham University Business School and Secretary General of the Commission for the Reform of Corporate Taxation. An analysis of the Labor consultants also highlights that they would create strong disparity between singles and families: a nucleus with two workers who both earn 22,250 euros (45 thousand in total) not taking into account the deductions would have a benefit of 300 euros, exactly with a single earner of an income of 30 thousand euros.

Finally, according to the president of the National Tax Institute Riccardo Alemanno applying the same 43% rate on all incomes above 50 thousand euros “can turn into a incentive not to exceed this threshold, especially by discouraging self-employment ”- or by encouraging tax evasion -“ but also income from employment by punishing career and position improvements ”. According to the tax expert, it would be better to recover resources “From incomes exceeding 200 thousand euros applying arate of 45% as happens in other European countries “. But the hypothesis of increasing the pressure on higher incomes is seen as smoke in the eyes by the majority, who in view of the tax reform of which the Irpef cut is an appetizer has also decided not to even consider a patrimonial on great riches.

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