There are many unknowns still in the field to allow the parties to predict at this stage what will happen during the voting for the election of the new Head of State. All the more so after Sergio Mattarella’s confirmed unavailability to an encore. Unknowns, but above all tactics typical of the pre-election phase, which make it difficult for political forces to establish a strategy right now, complete with counter-moves in case a ‘plan B’ is needed. This does not mean that the leaders are not already in turmoil, beyond the official statements. The abacus is already compulsive and, for now, the only certainty is that neither the center-right nor the center-left, including the 5 stars, can manage to elect their own candidate on their own. But it will be necessary to involve in a possible ‘pact’ also the so-called ‘minor’ forces, starting with Italy alive, and above all the central area, which could play the role of needle of the balance.
But the first knot to be solved, which according to various sources both in the center-left and in the center-right turns out to be decisive for any scenario, is what Mario Draghi intends to do: stay in Palazzo Chigi at least until the natural expiry of the legislature in 2023 or aspire to Colle higher? Until a ‘signal arrives from the former governor of the ECB, it is the predominant opinion in the political buildings, it will be difficult to establish the individual moves to be implemented. Certainly today there are the words officially pronounced by Draghi in the various press conferences in which he was asked the direct question: “It is quite offensive towards the President of the Republic in office to start thinking in this way”, he replied to those who he asked him about his candidacy to the Colle banks advanced by some ministers.
Meanwhile, the totonomi has already started for weeks: the hypotheses that circulate range from Gianni Letta and Pier Ferdinando Casini to Marcello Pera (names on which the center-right could converge), and then Giuliano Amato and the owner of via Arenula Marta Cartabia. Then there is the name of Silvio Berlusconi, even if there is currently no official candidacy. Both Matteo Salvini and Giorgia Meloni consider it a plausible hypothesis, which they would certainly support. That the Hill is in the wishes of the Knight is not a mystery. But the center-right, if compact, including the minor forces of the center, would lack at least fifty votes out of a total of 1008 electors. In the first 3 votes by secret ballot, 2/3 of the votes of the Assembly will be needed. After the third ballot, an absolute majority is sufficient, equal to 505. The center-right on paper can count on at least 450 votes, while the center-left (including M5s) would start with a minimum of 420 votes, which rise to at least 460 if we also consider the renziani.
The prevailing ‘party’ at the moment is that of non-voting. That is, no solution that involves the early end of the legislature. It is a line that unites the parliamentary groups of different parties (even if the official position of the center-right is to go to the vote after the election of Mattarella’s successor). Fratelli d’Italia said he was ready to support Mario Draghi’s candidacy for the Colle as long as he returned to the polls immediately. Indeed, Giorgia Meloni herself, in the aftermath of the administrative office, addressed a sort of ‘provoking’ appeal to the dem secretary Enrico Letta: let’s elect Draghi as Sergio Mattarella’s successor and then go straight to elections. Proposal so far fallen on deaf ears. On the ‘game’ Colle in the center-right harbor different sensibilities: on paper the official position, sanctioned also in the last three-way summit and put in black and white in a joint note, is to converge compactly on a reference figure, of the area, convinced that for the first time the center-right has the numbers to prevail over any center-left candidate. If this figure were to be Berlusconi, the whole center-right would vote in favor of the blue leader. This is the ‘plan A’, the official one.
Then there are various positions: for Giancarlo Giorgetti, for example, Draghi should go to the Quirinale and from there exercise a de facto semi-presidentialism. Hypothesis that aroused an outcry, especially from the constitutionalists, but also from the Northern League leader. Who, in recent weeks, had defined that of Draghi a more than authoritative candidacy.
Today Salvini prefers a more diplomatic and cautious position: «We will talk about Quirinale in January, I don’t want to wear Draghi, Mattarella, Berlusconi. Whoever thinks of pulling by the jacket Draghi, Mattarella or anyone else disrespects the institution of the President of the Republic “, he said, and then added:” We are working to have a President who is not owned by the Democratic Party but represents everyone “. Berlusconi has always supported the importance of Draghi staying in Palazzo Chigi at least until 2023. As for the center-left, in the Democratic Party the imperative, dictated by the secretary, is in force that the Quirinale is spoken about in January. Line reaffirmed today: “I will not say anything until January, then everyone is free to do what they want, but I think it is a very wise thing to focus on the things to do which are many” such as “the exit from the pandemic and the cutting of taxes on labor ». For Letta “what happens these days is just a chat that distracts from important things.” After all, “in recent decades I have never seen the President of the Republic chosen months in advance”. Instead, the one who exposes himself is the governor of Emilia Romagna: «If Mario Draghi will be everyone’s candidate it will be an honor to be able to vote for him or applaud him because he would certainly be a great president. But selfishly I say that I would like to have him as prime minister until the end of the term ”, explains Stefano Bonaccini. Finally, M5s and Renzi.
For the Quirinale there will be “a shared choice. We want a person with a great moral profile, ”said the pentastellato leader Giuseppe Conte at the last assembly of parliamentarians. Having said that, Conte has explained several times that he has “no foreclosure for Mario Draghi at the Quirinale”. But for the former prime minister, “the primary objective is the realization of the NRP for which we have fought strenuously” and consequently “the priority is for Draghi to remain at Palazzo Chigi”. And, in any case, even if Draghi were to be elected at the Colle, this would not entail the automatism of the early vote, he clarified. “Who will make the President of the Republic will be decided by Parliament in February”, Matteo Renzi cut short in recent days, convinced of the fact that “the names that are now being made for the Quirinale are burned”, while the ‘real’ ones will come out out only at the last moment. In any case, the leader IV is aware that his 16 senators and 27 deputies could be decisive in the secret of the ballot box.