Covid, the Rt index on the rise. Brusaferro: “Contagions on the rise everywhere, especially among the under 12”

No region passes into the yellow zone. But the situation is starting to worry. This week 20 regions, based on the weekly monitoring of the control room, are classified at moderate risk and one region, Calabria, at low risk. Friuli Venezia Giulia, on the other hand, is reported to have a high probability of progression at high risk. And, in fact, at the press conference, the general director of Prevention at the Ministry of Health Giovanni Rezza, speaks clearly: «We cannot rule out a new increase in cases in the coming weeks. We cannot predict peaks in infections. There is an increase in the incidence of new Covid cases. The Rt is high, we are above 1 but, fortunately. as far as intensive care and ordinary hospitalizations are concerned, we are below the critical threshold ». For Silvio Brusaferro, president of the Higher Institute of Health, “the transmission is particularly high. We are for the third consecutive week in which new cases are increasing rapidly and generally. We must act in a precise and effective way in addition to using masks ». And again: «The effectiveness of the vaccine decreases after six months and it is therefore important to carry out the third dose booster».

The vaccines

In our country, the circulation of the virus has a more contained trend than in other countries but remains high: it goes from 385 to 421 cases in intensive care, from 2,992 to 3,436 cases in ordinary Covid wards. The median age for the diagnosis of Covid is 43 years, that of the first hospitalization of 69, 84 instead the median age for deaths. The virus also increases in the population under 12 years old. Millions and millions, on the other hand, are the unvaccinated; instead, the administration of the third dose increases, especially among the over 80. «Vaccines reduce the risk of contracting the infection even if they do not reduce it to zero. The virus circulates among the unvaccinated and, to some extent, within certain limits, also among the vaccinated. It is not a 100% protection against infection which, however, remains very high against serious illness, intensive care admissions and deaths “, concluded Rezza.

All monitoring data

The incidence of Coronavirus cases nationwide continues to rise. According to the monitoring of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità and the Ministry of Health, it has now reached 78 per hundred thousand inhabitants, compared to 53 last week. The Rt contagion index is also growing: it reaches 1.21, an increase compared to the previous week when it was 1.15, and steadily above the epidemic threshold. On the other hand, the transmissibility index based on cases with hospitalization is stable (Rt = 1.14 (1.1-1.19) at 02/11/2021 vs Rt ​​= 1.12 (1.06-1, 17) to 10/26/2021). Estimates of Rt are not dependent on the increase in swab tests because they are based only on symptomatic or hospitalized cases.

No region in the yellow zone

20 regions (out of 21) are at moderate risk, but Friuli-Venezia Giulia is moving towards high risk. Calabria is the only region classified as low risk. In any case, no region has exceeded the three parameters for the yellow zone, namely the occupancy of the medical areas over 15 percent, that of intensive care over 10 percent and the weekly incidence over 50 cases per hundred thousand. The level of occupancy of hospital beds is also growing: the employment rate in intensive care has reached 4.4 per cent compared to 4 per cent the previous week.

The employment rate in medical areas at the national level, on the other hand, rises to 6.1 percent against 5.3 at 28/10. There was a sharp increase in the number of new cases not associated with transmission chains (11,001 vs 8,326 in the previous week). The percentage of cases detected through contact tracing activity is decreasing (34 percent vs 35 last week). The percentage of cases detected through the onset of symptoms is also increasing (48 percent vs 47). Finally, the percentage of cases diagnosed through activities remains stable screening (18 percent vs 18).


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