EU Commission: Italy’s GDP + 6.2% in 2021, + 4.3% in 2022

Even better estimates – Therefore, the numbers of the new estimates improve, since in the summer the Commission had predicted a 5% increase in GDP for our country in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022.

Down debt and deficit – The recovery will bring down the ratio between public debt and GDP, which should go, according to Brussels, “from 155.6% in 2020 to 151% in 2023” thanks also “to a favorable stock-flow adjustment”. Following the growth, supported by “internal demand”, already this year the debt will drop to 154.4% and 151.4% in 2022. The deficit / GDP ratio is also improving, driven by the economic recovery and the gradual elimination of government emergency tax measures “: after rising to 9.6% in 2020, it is expected to drop to 9.4% in 2021, 5.8% in 2022 and 4.3% in 2023.

Faster than expected recovery across the EU – These and the numbers of the other countries photograph a faster-than-expected recovery, as the Commission further explains. The European Union, the forecasts read, “is recovering from the recession caused by the pandemic faster than expected and, despite the growing headwinds, the EU Commission expects GDP to grow by 5% in 2021 and 4.5% in both the euro area and the EU-27 in 2022. Among the risks to the growth prospects, Brussels points to the evolution of infections, bottlenecks in supply chains on a global scale and the increase in inflation linked to rising prices energy.

Risks remain in countries with low vaccinations – The unknown factor of the virus remains and, says the Commission, “although the impact of the pandemic on the economy has weakened considerably, Covid has not yet been defeated and the recovery is strongly linked to its evolution, both inside and outside the EU. “. Brussels also stresses that “in the European Union the risk is particularly relevant in Member States with relatively low vaccination rates”.

Estimates revised downwards for Germany and Spain, upwards for France – The situation in Germany goes against the average trend, where the Commission revises the estimates downwards. In the autumn economic forecasts it is estimated that the German GDP will grow by 2.7% in 2021, while in the summer ones there was a hypothetical + 3.6%. The Spanish GDP has also been revised downwards (4.6% against 6.2%), while the estimates improve for France (6.2% against 5%).

Gentiloni: impact of Recovery on GDP up to 1.5% – The European Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni specified: “In the medium term, the simulation models conducted by the Commission show that the Next GenerationEu could increase the EU’s GDP by up to 1.5% during its years of activity” . And he underlined, with regard to the autumn forecasts, that “these simulations concern investments only and do not include the positive impact of structural reforms, which can substantially increase growth in the long term”.

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