the FROST can arrive before the expected, the polar vortex can upset everything. The Trend »

the FROST can arrive before the expected, the polar vortex can upset everything. The Trend »
the FROST can arrive before the expected, the polar vortex can upset everything. The Trend »

Weather in DECEMBER: the FROST can arrive earlier than expected, the polar vortex can upset everything. The Trend

WINTER 2021/2022: everything will depend on the behavior of the Polar Vortex December is now upon us and therefore curiosity is growing to know what the start of the winter season will be like. Well, thanks to seasonal forecasts, as well as some atmospheric indices, we can already get a general idea of ​​what lies ahead.
The news has just arrived and concerns the training and behavior of the Polar vortex, which could cause a real advance ofWinter, cold and maybe even snowy.
In short, winter could immediately make it big voice.
So let’s make the point to understand of what is it, so to clarify and hypothesize one general trend on precipitation and temperatures.

In these weeks, in the high latitudes, beyond the Arctic Circle, one is starting to form mighty cyclonic structure which takes the name of Polar vortex. We can imagine it as one large area of ​​low pressure, inside which all the cold air that is continuously produced on the Arctic ice sheet is enclosed and which finds its outlet through the depression centers directed towards the South and therefore as far as Italy. These low pressure centers are i responsible for phases of intense bad weather and drastic drops in temperatures. The behavior of the Polar Vortex, however, it is not always the same.

For instance, if it is strong and compact, the cold remains confined to the North Pole, reason for which on Italy a stable weather with high pressures and milder air is to be expected. If, on the other hand, the Vortex goes into crisis, the effects can be more or less intense. Sometimes it can literally split into two or more parts, moving with its load of very cold and unstable air towards the South. When it splits / weakens the probability that waves of frost also reach our Peninsula grow considerably.
The cause of this split in the Polar Vortex is to be found in theinflow of much warmer air in the upper atmosphere, in technical terms stratwarming.

TREND START OF DECEMBER: As the American GFS model map (below) shows, a inflow of “warmer” air in the stratosphere (between 15 and 30 km in height), defined in technical terms stratwarming, with values ​​up to + 20 ° C compared to the average species between North-Eastern Siberia and Alaska.
It is a quite anomalous event in this period ofyear and in fact it could destabilize right away the Polar Vortex with consequences also on the European sector. If this is confirmed, already with the beginning of December masses of icy air descending from the Arctic could launch their attack on Europe, thus also provoking Italy an early arrival of the cold and of name at low altitude.

Abnormal stratospheric heating of the Polar Vortex


FROST arrive expected polar vortex upset Trend ILMETEOit

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