Run the recovery in Europe. Waiting for the new growth estimates that the EU Commission will publish on Thursday 11 November thus putting on paper the robust recovery of the economies, with the PIL bridge to cross the finish line of the I recover pre-Covid by December.
EU, upward estimates are coming. Also for Italy
Expected a better revision of the growth for the‘Eurozone, 4.8% and 4.5% in 2021 and 2022, the figures for will also be revised upwards Italy (Brussels had previously reported a +5% for 2021 but the boot should travel around 6% as also indicated by the Prime Minister Draghi)
The scenario, therefore, is encouraging but not risk-free. In fact, the recovery weighs more than one unknown. The EU Commissioner for Economic Affairs explained this yesterday, Paolo Gentiloni.
What are the unknowns about the recovery?
In the euro area – he said – “we know we have a strong recovery, but let’s look at two issues very closely. The first is the pandemic, we are not out yet, the second is inflation ”. It remains to be seen how persistent the energy price increases will be – “we’ll be back with more details in the coming days, with our autumn economic forecasts “-” then we will consider the logistics problems and supply chains, but I don’t think we should misunderstand the downside risks as if they were canceling the base scenario, which remains positive and with positive prospects ” . “Energy prices have a significant impact on the current increase in inflation” but “the phenomenon will probably be temporary: perhaps already nel first semester of next year “said the Commissioner.
Blazing inflation worries ECB
It was said in fact inflation, back to running, in the wake of energy increases, a variable that the ECB will certainly not be able to ignore. The now certain upward revision of the Commission’s inflation estimates could. in fact, impacting on the European Central Bank’s roadmap which postponed the next monetary policy moves to the December meeting.
Then there is the fourth wave, with concrete risks of new lockdowns, in particular in the eastern block, expanding the perimeter from the euro area to the European Union to 27. This scenario could weaken the recovery in the euro core.