Covid, excess mortality eliminated in Lazio. The region is not in danger of going yellow

Covid, excess mortality eliminated in Lazio. The region is not in danger of going yellow
Covid, excess mortality eliminated in Lazio. The region is not in danger of going yellow

The Covid raise your head, but at least for the moment Lazio does not risk the yellow zone: there is no longer an excess mortality caused by the coronavirus and the infections are mostly linked to well-circumscribed outbreaks. This is the result of a study conducted by StatGroup19, inter-academic group of statistical studies on the Covid 19 pandemic. The communication of the results comes from Professor Antonello Maruotti, Professor of Statistics at the Lumsa University and co-founder of the group. The research was conducted by evaluating the trend in mortality on the data provided by Istat. For Maruotti, “in Lazio the excess mortality estimated in the first four months of 2021 was equal to 10.1%, since May it has practically disappeared”.

The statistical model and the differences by age group

Data analysis, set up following a layering by age group, the statistical model showed the following results:

  • for the age group 65-74, an excess of mortality equal to 18.5% in the first four months of the year subsequently zeroed in the period between May and August;
  • for the age group 75-84, against a figure of 9.8% in the January-April period, a significant excess of mortality was not estimated in the following four-month period;
  • for those over 85 and under 15 there was no statistically significant excess of mortality for the entire period;
  • for the 15-64 category, an estimated excess of mortality of 12.3% in the first four months has passed to a statistically insignificant figure in the following months.

The role of vaccination

“This scenario – continues the professor Maruotti -, as well as to a small extent by the so-called harvesting effect, it seems to have been favored by the timing of the vaccination campaign which, by privileging the over 85 and only following the other age groups, seems to have played a key role in reducing the excess mortality figure, which since May has been zero or reduced to values ​​so low as to be statistically not significant “.

Source

Covid excess mortality eliminated Lazio region danger yellow

PREV Ukraine in the balance between the US and Russia: a guide to the conflict that no one can afford
NEXT New Year’s rape 2020 in Primavalle, Rome, and the responsibilities of adults