“The fourth epidemic wave is already underway but we can reduce it. We can make it a wave. It is up to us to ensure that it does not become an impetuous wave like in other countries. “To photograph the situation, on SkyTg24, And Walter Ricciardi, full professor of Hygiene and preventive medicine, former president of theIss e advisor to the Minister of Health for the coronavirus emergency. “If we continue to use protections, do the third doses and manage the testing and tracking in schools properly, it will remain a small and not overwhelming wave as it happens in other countries,” Ricciardi says.
The reasons for the infections
“All over the world – explains Ricciardi – the circulation of the virus increases, for 3 reasons: the cold which leads to being in closed and more crowded places, the lack of vaccination coverage of important percentages of the population, this is not the case in Italy but for example we see in countries where there is a massacre underway, such as Bulgaria and Romania, where you can barely reach 30% coverage “. And then, he adds “the last reason is the partial attenuation of vaccine protection for vaccinated people over 6 months ago and with this extremely contagious variant, they begin to become infected. If we add to this the fact that we move more, we use less masks and we are less attentive to the safety distance because we are all tired, we understand how these elements together raise the epidemic wave “.
The Austrian model
Of an Austrian model with lockdown for unvaccinated “now We do not need, because the measures taken serve to keep the epidemic under control, as it is happening. But as time goes by we should think about correcting the Green pass“, according to Ricciardi. “Now the Green pass it is also possible with an antigenic buffer but this has a 30% false negative and gives a false sense of security. Especially with the Delta variant, if you enter a place where there are susceptible people with a false negative test, infection occurs. “
The possible deterioration
The possible worsening of the situation is expected “between January and February because the Covid epidemic proved to be an epidemic with very predictable cycles“. While compared to the risk of restrictions at Christmas, “if we continue like this, we can think of surviving the winter adequately” but on condition that we proceed quickly with the third dose, which “must be done to prevent the circulation of the virus and to maintain protection from serious forms of infection”. Regarding the hypothesis of possible restrictive measures during the holidays, Ricciardi explained, “since last year there are clear scientific criteria and objectives to be used to make the necessary choices. But today we are among the best countries, because we have ahigh vaccination coverage it’s a extensive green pass which allows you to attend indoor environments with a certain level of safety. If we continue like this, we can think of surviving the winter adequately. However, the recall of third doses because between January and February the six months expire for millions of people and they must protect themselves. “At this moment, he concluded,” the pandemic is essentially for the unvaccinated but also for those who are starting to lose vaccination protection “.
Cartabellotta: “More than the fourth wave of contagions”
“More than the fourth wave I would speak of resurgence of infections, with modest impact in the hospital environment. There is no doubt that there is an important increase in cases, it is happening all over Europe “. Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation, intervened in the transmission ‘Italy has awakened’ on Radio Cusano Campus.
“In Italy the impact of the increase in cases on hospitals – states Cartabellotta – is quantitatively lower compared to the period in which there were no vaccines and it is also less serious because the greatest increase was in the medical area, not in intensive care. But be careful to keep all precautions, like the use of a mask, to avoid a further increase in the circulation of the virus “, underlines.
However, “to date, among the vaccinable population, the people who have not had the vaccine are over 7 million of which about 2.7 million are over 50. I have the impression that between exemptions and hard core, it will not be possible to go beyond 15-20 thousand new vaccinates per day. And this remains a critical issue in view of the winter “.
On the front of the anti-Covid vaccination, he continues, “the second criticality is linked to the third doses. We have a third dose which is in fact dedicated to immuno-compromised people, who are a fixed audience. Umbria and Tuscany have used the active call mechanism and are very much coverage large, while others have used the voluntary booking mechanism and are further behind “. “It is important – he remarks Cartabellotta – that you line up on the active calling mechanism. The fundamental problem, however, is that now we are restarting a real round of vaccination campaign as 6 months pass from the second dose for the elderly. As several Regions have dismantled the hubs, we need to reorganize. By the end of the year, the booster doses amounted to about 12 million “.
“Merry Christmas? As long as go ahead on vaccinations and third doses “ anti-Covid: “This is the element that will make the difference. The evolution of this hit of the tail of the virus also depends on us, that is, on a responsibility in maintaining the new etiquette, in getting vaccinated, in making the third dose”. This is the warning that comes from the virologist Fabrizio Pregliasco, professor at the University of Milan, commenting on what was stated by the Undersecretary of Health Pierpaolo Sileri, according to which this year “we can trust in a peaceful Christmas”.
The big dinner
But in view of the Christmas euphoria, Pregliasco brakes and sets the stakes for the dinner of holidays. “In the meantime, let’s try not to overdo it – he says to theAdnkronos Health – Excessive tables are a bit risky, let’s do them, but more restricted “. And before gathering grandparents and grandchildren, the expert warns,” absolutely essential are the three doses of vaccine for all over-sixties “. But that’s not enough. home “it is difficult to say to wear a mask, but at least we try to maintain attention in hygiene and behavior”. No to “kisses and hugs” which “have always been moments of risk even for the flu and therefore – remember – even more so for Covid. Let’s avoid them “. At the table, if possible,” let’s sit a little apart, at least for families “. It is also important to” ventilate the room while keeping some windows open “.
But this, the virologist confesses laughing, “just because we can’t say ‘no Christmas, no dinners'”, a suggestion that “some mothers who have to prepare – ironically the doctor – would be very happy”. But I pray how will Christmas pass? “I am a well-known antisocial so – he concludes – at home, alone”.