Covid, in Sicily the incidence of the virus increases and in the Catania area the infections multiply

At the moment no region exceeds the thresholds of 15% for the medical area and 10% for intensive care set by the government for the transition to the yellow zone, but some are to be kept under control. Italy remains all in the white zone, despite the autumn upsurge of infections. What will happen in the last 50 days of 2021? And by 2022, will we still be in a state of emergency? Let’s proceed in order.

Yellow zone: the regions that risk the most

But there are some regions that have high parameters and, if the epidemiological curve continues to rise, the risk is that they will change bands before Christmas. It should be remembered that the transition from the white to the yellow area takes place on the basis of three parameters: the weekly incidence of new positives must exceed 50 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants, the employment rate in the medical area must be over 15%, the rate ICU employment must be over 10%

There are currently 4 territories on which attention is focused. In Friuli-Venezia Giulia the incidence of new cases is equal to 156.85 and the occupancy of the places in intensive care is 10%. The situation in the ordinary departments remains well below the critical threshold because it is at 9% but the attention remains high

The autonomous province of Bolzano is of concern, where there are 216.09 cases per week and employment in the medical area is 11% even if the figure for intensive care is comforting which is 4% In Calabria there is an incidence of 54, 59, 12% occupied places (this is the age-old problem of the few beds available in hospitals) and intensive care at 5%. On the cases in Lazio which recorded a weekly incidence of 72.5, but the hospitalization situation is under control because there is an employment of 8% in the wards and in intensive care it is 6%

As for the incidence, there are 13 regions that have exceeded 50 weekly cases: Abruzzo (57.96), Calabria (54.59%), Campania (71.99), Emilia Romagna (67.99), Friuli Venezia Giulia (156.85), Lazio (72.5), Marche (63.93), autonomous province of Bolzano (216.09), autonomous province of Trento (70.59), Sicily (52.78), Tuscany (61.8), Umbria (59.3), Veneto (91.94). In ten cities and provinces the infections are multiplying every day. They are: Bolzano, Gorizia, Trieste, Padua, Forlì-Cesena, La Spezia, Siena, Rieti, Catania and Syracuse.

The yellow zone is not an immediate scenario

No region is facing the yellow zone since the end of this week. In fact, the data for Tuesday, tomorrow, with regard to hospitalizations (in the ordinary and intensive wards) and the incidence data for Thursday are those that are then processed and used for monitoring the ISS every Friday. This is how it has proceeded in all these months (except in one week).

So no restrictions on arrival in the immediate future. The monitoring of the Higher Institute of Health on Friday, which then decides in the control room which Regions change color from the following Monday, always looks at the data of the previous Tuesday and, unless an incidence level at the limit between two colors (it is not this week’s case), you don’t need special divinatory powers to know what’s going to happen, at least for next week.

But if the rising trend does not stop, it is possible that around the end of November-beginning of December some regions will find themselves in an uncomfortable situation. “The rules we have at our disposal work,” the Minister of Health explained last week during a press conference organized to take stock of the continuation of the vaccination campaign. “Italy is all white and the color change occurs on the basis of the occupation of places in intensive care and in the medical area. At this precise moment, no Region has the conditions to leave the white area”. And if “the picture were to become even more complicated”, added Speranza, “we already have rules that should only be applied”.

The peak between January and February according to Ricciardi

“If we do not increase the number of vaccinated with the first dose and if we do not administer the third quickly we will have a strong recovery, more than what we see now. It will presumably take place between January and February. Certainly, however, mortality will be lower than that of the first. big waves thanks to vaccines, which in any case will protect a little “. Word of Walter Ricciardi, scientific advisor to the Minister of Health, who yesterday interviewed by Repubblica was sketching scenarios. According to the expert, children will need to be vaccinated and parents will need to be convinced “by explaining to them that vaccines are safe and protective and that the risk of contracting the infection and getting sick remains very high. On the other hand, the vast majority of vaccines are administered. precisely in pediatric age “.

In reality, in the week just past, 1-7 November 2021, infections from Covid-19 in Italy continue to rise, but the curve slows down compared to the previous weeks. From what emerges from the analysis of the numbers in the daily bulletins provided by the Ministry of Health and the Higher Institute of Health, between 1 and 7 November last there were 36095 cases of new infections in Italy: + 17.22% compared to the 30792 of the Previous week. A growth, however, in decline, indeed almost halved, given that the week 25-31 October had seen an increase of 32.13% on 18-24 October (30792 vs 23305), which in turn had marked a + 32.4% on week 11-17 October (23305 vs 17602).

State of emergency: what happens in 2022

Only around mid-December will the government decide how to proceed on the possible extension of the state of emergency in 2022. The state of emergency, which expires on 31 December, has now been extended since the end of January 2020, when it was introduced by the then Prime Minister Giuseppe With you. The Figliuolo commissioner structure, which operates in derogation to various rules, exists thanks to the state of emergency. Without it, the decree that regulates its functioning would no longer exist, with possible consequences on the organization of the vaccination campaign. But, as we have explained to you several times, the law that establishes it allows it to last for a maximum period of two years. The extension is still possible for a month, after which the government would be forced to institutional forcing, or to change the law.

Health Minister Roberto Speranza said last week that he is in favor of a “renewed” state of emergency if the numbers advise it, and as the Press has the support of the Democratic Party. Enrico Letta with a tweet took his side. “If necessary, the government will propose an extension. And we will be on its side.”

But Mario Draghi would be much, much more cautious: “To digest an amendment to the law establishing civil protection would not be easy either with the League or with Forza Italia. At Palazzo they underline that this is the minor problem: just as the premier himself is shown inflexible on the introduction of the Green Pass, he would do the same with the extension. The point is that Draghi is not convinced it is really necessary “, argues the newspaper. Yesterday’s bulletin speaks of 5,822 positives, 26 victims, 3,215 hospitalized with symptoms, 398 in intensive care throughout Italy. Twelve months ago there were eight times more inmates. For third doses and vaccines for new age groups, this is the reasoning that is gaining ground, large vaccination hubs are not necessary, nor the massive commitment of the army and civil protection: “One of the median hypotheses, already evaluated by Undersecretary Roberto Garofoli last spring, is to introduce ad hoc rules that safeguard the structure “. It is therefore possible to say goodbye to an instrument that many consider no longer adhering to a context that is now very different from the first terrible months of 2020.

Green Pass, only 900 fines throughout Italy

The Green Pass remains the only real restriction at the moment. Since October 15 (the date of the entry into force of the obligation of green certification also in the workplace) there have been only 668 sanctions applied to individual citizens and even fewer, 234, those to owners of businesses or businesses. All, he writes today Republic, compared to about one and a half million checks carried out by the police. For the rest, the sanction mechanism provided for by the law “is so vague and cumbersome that it is unlikely that anyone caught without a Green Pass in the workplace or in any place where it is required will actually receive the sanction. the prefect who should receive the report from the employer, an inspector of the ASL or of the work, even of a single citizen. And who then, as for any administrative sanction, has three months to notify it “.

According to the Roman daily, police blitzes in workplaces and clubs are becoming increasingly rare, “as the numbers tell but also as it becomes increasingly evident from the increasing number of business owners who let customers in without checking possession of the Green Pass or contenting oneself at most with asking if one has it or not “.


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