Yellow zone risk: fourth wave of Covid, at what point is it in Emilia-Romagna, Marche and Veneto

Bologna, 8 November 2021 – We have returned to talk about rise in infections for Covid and the fourth wave. In fact, the data from the latest monitoring by the Ministry of Health indicate an increase in the weekly incidence at the national level which is now above the threshold of 50 cases per week per 100 thousand inhabitants: 51, up from 41 a week ago. L’National Rt Index rose from 0.96 to 1.15, while all the regions and autonomous provinces are classified a moderate epidemic risk. None of them present a low risk anymore, but not even a high one. The positive note is given by terapie intensive which remain stable at 4%, while i non-critical departments I’m al 5%, according to data from Agenas, the National Agency for Regional Health Services.

Covid data from Emilia-Romagna, Marche and Veneto they all are increasing, with incidences close to or greater than 50 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants. The incidence figure greater than 50 may be one of the reasons for switching to yellow zone, but must be accompanied by an intensive care occupation equal to or greater than 10% and for the covid departments of 15%. Apart from the intensive therapies in the Marche region that continue to be high (10%), the other hospital data are not alarming.

Let’s see in detail all the parameters of the three regions, taking into consideration the monitoring number 77 About the week from 25 to 31 October. (Here the analysis of the previous monitoring, number 76).

Emilia Romagna

L’indice Rt of Emilia-Romagna is splashed in 1,22 (from 0.89), bringing the classification of the compatible scenario from 1 to 2. It means that the spread of the epidemic is not lower, but moderate and can lead to a further increase in infections, but also in the incidence. Which, among other things, has exceeded the ceiling of 50 cases, settling at 57, but with a slight decrease in the week October 29-November 4, that is to say 56.1.

The weekly cases: 2.534, against 2,073 of the week of 18-24 October and 1,414 of 11-17 October. Despite a slight increase in the employment of terapie intensive, from 3 a 4%, the data is of no concern for now. Non-critical departments remain at 4%. The impact assessment on hospitals remains ‘low’, as well as the probability of spread of the epidemic and the overall risk classification remain ‘moderate’.

We are far from the 10/20 thousand cases of the last months of February and March that closed the region in the orange and then red zone, but certainly we will have to continue to monitor the situation and evaluate the behaviors to be followed to avoid a further worsening of the situation.


As we also reported in the last monitoring, the terapie intensive are still the most alarming figure and have risen from 9 to 10%. 10% is the threshold that would imply the yellow zone, accompanied by an incidence of more than 50 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants and non-critical wards at 15%. But in the Marche the incidence is still at 45.49, albeit rising compared to 40.23 of the previous monitoring and with a slight increase a 50.2 in the week of October 29-November 4, which however remains a data being updated. THE non-critical departments have gone from 5 to 6% employment.

L’indice Rt rose from 0.83 to 1,12 and i are also growing weekly cases, albeit not too much: 683, against 604 of the week 18-24 October and 298 of 11-17 October. In fact, the most significant increase was recorded in the last monitoring. The evaluations of the parameters, on the other hand, have not changed. The probability of spread of the epidemic and the overall risk classification are still ‘moderate’. ‘Low’ is the impact on hospitals.

We recall that when the Marche was in the red zone in March 2021, the average of weekly cases ranged between 4 thousand and 4,700 and the hospitals were occupied between 50 and 60%. A whole different situation. The hope, given the implementation of the vaccination campaign, is not to review data of this magnitude.


L’incidence in Veneto continues its rise and arrives at 60.3. The data of the week 29 October-4 November it even reaches 75.3. It is the highest parameter in the region, compared to the others, although it is increasing. L’indice Rt it went from 0.91 to 1,1. Instead, i weekly cases They were 2.926, compared to 2,583 of the week 18-24 October and 1,939 of 11-17 October.

I non-critical departments, on the other hand, they are stable at 3% and the terapie intensive have risen by one percentage point, reaching 4%. Also in Veneto the assessments are like those of the other two regions: the impact on hospitals is ‘low’ and the probability of spread of the epidemic and the overall risk classification ‘moderate’.

The fact that, in the greatest way, can be more dangerous for Veneto is theincidence. When the region was in the orange zone at the end of February 2021 it was about 151, while in the passage in the red zone it rose to 251. The occupancy of hospitals, compared to the other two regions, however, has always been lower.

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