Italy risks losing up to 58 billion euros of GDP due to climate change by 2050. The “G20 Climate Risks Atlas” Report of the Euro Center Foundation raises the alarm on the day of the opening of COP26 in Glasgow -mediterranean on climate change (Cmcc), created with the support of the European Climate Foundation and with the scientific contribution of the Enel Foundation.
Italy is among the best performers in energy transformation, thanks to “the low energy intensity of the economy and the advanced digitalization of the electricity grid, which has had a positive benefit in terms of transmission and distribution losses”. Over the past decade, investments have also been made in renewables to replace (mostly imported) fossil fuels. Yet further acceleration of electrification is needed, especially in construction and transport.
Despite Italy’s commitment to energy efficiency, our country can lose between 1.7% and 3.7% of GDP (maximum 58 billion) in the worst-case scenario linked to the impacts of climate change. If, on the other hand, the commitment of the G20 countries to reduce emissions to contain the temperature variation around +1.5 degrees centigrade were respected, Italy would suffer a loss between 0.02% and 2.2% of the GDP, i.e. a maximum of 36 billion euros.
Looking at the G20 countries, the report estimates total GDP losses in the worst case at around 4% by 2050, a value that would exceed 8% by 2100, practically double the economic losses due to Covid. -19. Moreover, some countries could be affected to an even greater extent, for example for Canada a reduction in GDP of at least 4% by 2050 and by more than 13% (or 133 billion euros) by 2100. If, on the other hand, the increase in global temperature remains within two degrees, the cost for the countries that are part of the G20 could fall to 0.1% of total GDP by 2050 and to 1.3% by 2100.
“Unless we act now, climate change will severely affect the largest economies in the world”, as evidenced by rising temperatures and heat waves, widespread drought, lack of water for agriculture, loss of lives and the growing number of fires. And nevertheless the rise in sea level and coastal erosion, the decrease in food stocks, the threats to the tourism sector, the spread of tropical diseases and food insecurity, specified in a note Donatella Spano, member of the Cmcc strategic council and report coordinator. On the road to sustainable transition, he concluded, “climate change must be a fundamental pillar of the political agenda”. (All rights reserved)