In 48 hours, the budget law lands in the Council of Ministers and the most complex issue, that of pensions, has not yet been resolved. On the contrary. When there are two months left to the end of Quota 100 and the “specter” of the return to the Fornero law is real, all parties try to achieve something. Mario Draghi summoned the confederal secretaries of CGIL, CISL and UIL to Palazzo Chigi for this afternoon: they are ready to mobilize against the system of provisional quotas. Then he also met Matteo Salvini.
Quota 100 for small businesses
Quote 100 may not completely disappear. The League has asked Draghi for an exemption on Quota 100 for small companies under 15 employees with the creation of an ad hoc fund and is negotiating with the government technicians on the graduality with which to overcome Quota 100, starting from Quota 102 next year. . Salvini is also ready to give up on everything else, but he would like not to do it empty-handed. This is why he made a proposal to the premier: to set up a protection fund for weary workers of companies under 15 employees, who do not enjoy certain protections, such as layoffs, helping them to retire after the end of Quota 100.
The Democratic Party, for its part, asks to refinance the Woman Option which has a relatively low cost (100 million) and to expand the social Ape to new categories of strenuous jobs. It deals with. The parties are split, with the unions at the center of the debate with their demand for flexibility for everyone over 62.
However, the government plan involves few workers, according to some trade union estimates only 10 thousand people: 8,524 in 2022 and 1,924 in 2023. This is the effect of Quota 102 and 104 according to a study by the Di Vittorio Foundation of the CGIL, while the technicians of the State General Accounting had imagined 50,000 issues a year. The unions are against the quota system because the problem, they believe, is not to make the exit from Quota 100 gradual, but to reform the system as a whole. Yes, but how?
All retired for 63 years but taking less money
its Republic today Tito Boeri and Roberto Perotti, two esteemed economists, once again put forward the proposal to exceed Quota 100 based on “equal rules for all”. It is no secret that the endless reforms of the pension system have created a jungle of rules. The Quota 102 and Quota 104 hypotheses (i.e. raising the personal registration requirement gradually, to 64 years in 2022 and to 66 in 2023, maintaining the minimum contribution requirement of 38 years, and then passing in 2024 to the ordinary regime at 67 years) “would always concern only the three generations of Quota 100: those born from 1 January 1960 onwards will continue to retire 5 years later than those born a day earlier, as before quota 100 – observe Boeri and Perotti -. The staircase will be lowered only to individuals born between 1957 and 1959 who by the end of this year had not yet reached 38 years of contributions: 48,000 people in 2022 and 23,000 in 2023. Almost all men because, as per 100, the high contribution requirements penalize women who have discontinuous contributory careers “.
Not even extending the heavy-duty range would really do away with the grand staircase. “Since INPS does not collect information on jobs, it has to resort to other databases that only cover segments of a career. To benefit from this exit channel, a heavy work of collecting documentation is therefore necessary; almost all possible beneficiaries they prefer to be fired and access the Social Ape through the state of unemployment “explain Boeri and Perotti, who then get to the point:” All pensions now have a component calculated with the contribution method and on this share there are (however modest) reductions of the amount of the allowance for those who want to retire earlier “. It would be necessary to “extend these corrections to the salary component. It would be a way of anticipating the entry into force of rules on the retirement age that will affect all workers in 10 years. No more exceptions; rules that are the same for everyone and understandable: who retires before he will receive his pension for a longer period, it is therefore absolutely reasonable that the annual amount be reduced accordingly “.
In fact, the two academics, among the leading Italian pension experts, hypothesize greater flexibility. But a real flexibility, which therefore has some impacting consequences: you can retire whenever you want, starting from 63 years of age, but accepting an actuarial reduction, which today only applies to the contribution rate, on the entire amount of the pension. . It would be a way to reduce the inequalities in treatment between contributory pensions and “mixed” pensions, because it would also allow the holders of the latter to retire earlier, provided they have at least 20 years of contributions and a pension above a minimum threshold (currently about 1450 euros per month) in order not to risk ending up in poverty, especially when strongly encouraged by the company to leave. The 1450 euro threshold is clearly above the Istat poverty line. It could be lowered to a thousand euros, about 2 times the minimum pension, making the audience potentially interested in early retirement wider.
The retirement in two stages: the Tridic hypothesis
In this regard, it is part of a similar reasoning, among the candidates to replace Quota 100 – as part of the 2022 maneuver – the other proposal on the table of the ongoing debate, together with quota 102 and 104 and the much more flexible one of the trade unions. It is the one illustrated several times in parliament by the president of INPS, Pasquale Tridico, who again last week presented it as the only “truly flexible and financially compatible” solution in terms of costs and with a much more consistent audience than it has ever brought. the Northern League experimentation at home. We are talking about the so-called two-stage pension: the hypothesis is to anticipate, for those who have turned 63-64 years old and want to leave work, only the contribution portion of the pension by postponing the total allowance, including the salary part, to the completion of the 67 years old. On the other hand, once the old-age pension has been reached, the worker will be entitled to the full allowance, complete with wages and contributions.
No rigid ‘cage’ therefore within which to contain future retirees only the opportunity of choice with costs for the state coffers, in the medium term, substantially zero. On balance, the INPS still estimated, there would be about 203 thousand additional pensions that can be activated between 2022 and 2024 to which another 129 thousand from 2025 to 2027 will be added for a total of 332 thousand pensions from 2022 to 2027. And the costs would also be around to 4.2 million euros between 2022 and 2027 which would then be recovered from spending savings that from 2027 to 2031 could amount to around 2 billion euros in total.
To access two-stage retirement, Tridico still recalled, in addition to the age requirement, at least 63-64 years of age, it is necessary to have at least 20 years of contributions and have accrued at the time of choice a pension contribution of an equal or higher amount. 1.2 times the social allowance. This is to limit the audience that will be able to access early retirement and avoid poor checks. The proposal also provides for the accumulation of the mini-pension with income from dependent, self-employed work and the possibility of anchoring the performance to future generational relay mechanisms, linked to part time while categorically excludes the possibility of coexistence with the Rdc, the bee social security and compensation for the cessation of commercial activity.
Pensions: “Extended” exit from work at 63
The drop point could be found around the number 63. That is, an “extended” exit from work next year to 63 years with the payment bar at 39 or 40, according to the Sole 24 Ore. “The possible Quota 102 (63 years plus 39 of contributions) would expire after 12 months, and would then be followed by Quota 103. In the event that an immediate Quota 103 (63 years plus 40 of payments or” 64 + 39 “), The duration should instead be 24 months (and not just one year) before returning to the Fornero law in its full version. All this would be accompanied by the expansion of the audience of heavy work for which a facilitated exit is provided , which should remain that of the social Ape “.
What is certain is that unions do not like a possible quota 102, which for some time have proposed two other ways to exceed Quota 100: the possibility of leaving work at 62-63 years with a penalty of 1-2% of the grants each year earlier than 67 and therefore, once this age is reached, obtain full pension, and the introduction of a Quota 41 in order to make it possible to leave work with 41 years of contributions regardless of age (against 42 years and 10 months today for men and 41 years and 10 months for women). Hypothesis. A summary will be found in the next 48 hours.
The parallel negotiation on pensions
The unions are ready to strike. It is “unbearable” to be overtaken by the League in the defense of retirees, to accept the return to the Fornero law without raising the barricades: the leaders of CGIL, CISL and UIL must define their strategy. We need a table, the social partners reason. And it is on this that the unions are preparing for a new move: to propose to the government to start a parallel negotiation (also on the tax side) while the Parliament examines the budget law. A possible agreement could then be transferred to a government amendment to the maneuver of 23.4 billion. It is not a new scheme, other times it has been used. It would take the unions out of the corner and out of the strange competition with the League which tries in every way to keep the Quota 100 scheme. Work in progress.