Contagions from Covid, in some Provinces there has been a considerable surge, a situation that certainly needs to be kept under control. To tell this new Italian scenario were the analyzes conducted by the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani of the CNR: in the last seven days, 30 of the 107 Italian provinces registered a 40% increase in the incidence of cases.
From the Institute for the Applications of Computing “Mauro Picone”, Of the National Research Council, Sebastiani commented on the data that emerged from his investigations: the trend it is growing and in some of these the increase is “statistically significant”. In addition to the 30 Provinces that recorded a similar incidence, another 17 show growth of between 20% and 40%.
Covid: the incidence increases by 40% in some Provinces
There are 30 Italian provinces that in the last seven days have recorded an increase in positive cases at Covid at least by 40%. In 8 of these the incidence exceeded i 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per week, a non-negligible figure as it is one of the three elements that, simultaneously with the occupancy of beds for Covid greater than 10% in intensive care and 15% in the medical area, decrees the transition from the white area to yellow zone.
From the analysis conducted by the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani (CNR) there are 17 other provinces where the increase is between 20% and 40%, among these three regional capitals cannot go unnoticed: Roma, Milano e Torino, where approximately one sixth of the Italian population resides overall. The data, however, are not reduced only to this.
Covid: which are the 30 most affected provinces?
The 40% increase in incidence of the positive cases at Covid is certainly not a reassuring fact, but the Technical Scientific Committee had hypothesized a similar situation. In fact, with the arrival of autumn and cold weather, the CTS and Walter Ricciardi, right arm of Speranza, had assumed an increase in infections, despite Italy having more than 80% of the population vaccinated with at least the first dose of the vaccine.
Speaking in percentage terms, the surge in infections is worrying, even if, in real terms, in the last week some Provinces have registered just about twenty cases overall. If for these cities the increase is still considerable, there is a city that raises concerns having an incidence equal to 150 cases per week per 100,000 inhabitants and is Trieste, which places itself at the top of the ranking, with the highest number of positive cases. Below is the list of 30 most affected provinces in Italy.
- Trieste with 150 almost;
- Bolzano with 84 almost;
- Rieti with 73 almost;
- Imperia with 63 almost;
- Enna with 60;
- Forlì-Cesena with 56 almost;
- Gorizia with 52 almost;
- Terni with 51 almost;
- Viterbo with 49 almost;
- Pisa with 49 almost;
- Rovigo with 49 almost;
- Massa Carrara with 47 almost;
- Latina with 46 almost;
- Messina with 45 almost;
- Vercelli with 40 almost;
- Stopped with almost 39;
- Grosseto 39 almost;
- Perugia with 36 almost;
- Salerno with 35 almost;
- Cremona with 33 almost;
- Varese with 32 almost;
- Pordenone with 31 almost;
- Lecce with 29 almost;
- Udine with 27 almost;
- Chieti with 21 almost;
- Brindisi 18 almost;
- What with 17 almost;
- Campobasso with 16 almost;
- Ascoli Piceno with 14 almost;
- Mantua with 13 almost.
In light of the data Sebastiani speaks of a growing trend and in seven of these (Forlì, Rieti, Viterbo, Imperia, Cremona, Fermo and Pisa) the increase was statistically significant.
Covid: the causes of the increase in incidence
The incidence that worries the most is that of the capital of Friuli-Venezia Giulia: Trieste with an incidence of 150 cases per week, indicating a problem that affects the entire region. Faced with this result, the mathematician Sebastiani has researched the causes.
Surely it negatively affected the low percentage of vaccinated detected with respect to the rest of the Region. The few vaccinations have always been indicated by the CTS as the cause of the increase in infections. A true hypothesis considering that Bolzano, second in the ranking with an incidence of 84 cases per week, is among the least vaccinated in Italy, with two out of three people not yet immunized.
Another cause is certainly the contact with other European countries, which are facing a surge in cases, especially the Eastern countries. In fact, it is no coincidence that all the provinces of Friuli-Venezia Giulia have registered a significant increase in infections. It must in fact be considered that the Slovenia ranks 9th by incidence in Europe, with 330 cases per week per 100,000 population; other states of the Balkan peninsula have equally high values, such as Serbia with 442 cases (highest value in Europe), Romania with 368 cases and Bulgaria with 343, registering an exponential increase. These data highlight for Sebastiani the obvious need to perform border controls of incoming flows.