what if Erdogan goes through with it

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has not yet kicked out anyone, but said he had given “instructions to the Foreign Ministry to declare ten ambassadors” persona non grata “from countries with which Turkey is allied and friendly: United States, Germany , France, Holland, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Canada, New Zealand. A shocking decision, which some took as a header, others as the provocation of a man who is increasingly alone on the international front and increasingly in difficulty in domestic politics, where opponents are growing in terms of consensus and are seeing their satisfaction in polls. But why such a decision?

The Turkish premier did not digest the ambassadors’ stance, who had signed an appeal for a fair trial and for the release of the philanthropist Osman Kavala, human rights defender, political prisoner since November 2017. And as always Erdogan, when he hears when cornered, he makes strong decisions to get muscles, which he doesn’t even know the least bit endowed with. The threat has not yet materialized in an official act against the heads of the diplomatic missions of the ten countries, with the chancelleries awaiting communications. It should be clarified that it is not an expulsion, but a very heavy act because it represents an invitation to countries to recall their diplomats. Erdogan will have to think about it seriously before going from words to deeds because if he goes all the way, the same measure will automatically be triggered against the Turkish ambassadors in the same ten countries.

Erdogan ready to “kick” 10 ambassadors from Turkey

When the approval fails, the diplomatic representative is emptied of his functions and de facto unable to exercise them. The measure does not presuppose a cut in diplomatic relations, at that point carried out by the charge d’affaires of the embassies, at a lower level than the previous one. In short, that of Ankara is not an expulsion, but it is clear that those men or women could not remain in Turkey because it would no longer make sense for them, as well as for the countries they represent. The latter would then pass the ball, to understand if they want to mend or continue relationships at a lower level.

The analysts’ first impression is that this is the latest shot from a leader in a nervous breakdown. In domestic politics, the approval of opponents increases and abroad it has only Russia and Iran as friends. He feels on the ropes and tries to throw shots hoping that they will hit the mark. “This makes us understand how much Erdogan’s government is alone in the international field, – said the journalist and writer on duty Murat Cinar – His request to meet Biden is not accepted and had already been rejected, he will try to do so in Rome in occasion of the G20. Erdogan is isolated abroad and at home he comes from a four-year crisis, in which he has proved unable to deal with the Covid emergency. As always, to cover up his mistakes, he tries a radical maneuver to make a good impression on his electorate ”.

In fact, the Turkish President had already behaved similarly and, after the so-called Sofagate and the daring words of the Italian Premier Mario Draghi, who had defined the Turkish President a “dictator”, one would have expected the end of any diplomatic relationship between Turkey and the ‘West for some time. But is not so. The agreement between Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s country and Europe is still open, at least formally. Also because historically it is Turkey that has always asked to enter the area of ​​Western influence, also initiating important reforms such as the abolition of the death penalty; on the other hand, Europe also has an interest in incorporating the Anatolian country, so as to extend its interests where Russia and China would also like to get involved. And then there are many common interests, but the impression is that the situation is destined to become even more difficult because such a serious event, in peacetime, is unprecedented.

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