The poll: Pd at 20.7%, is the first party. The League overtaken by measure. More abstentions and undecided: 40.9% –

The poll: Pd at 20.7%, is the first party. The League overtaken by measure. More abstentions and undecided: 40.9% –
The poll: Pd at 20.7%, is the first party. The League overtaken by measure. More abstentions and undecided: 40.9% –
from Nando Pagnoncelli

Conte, liking down by 8 points. But he is still in the lead among the leaders. Center-right at 46.8%. The center-left at 31.9: rises to 44.4 with M5S (but without Iv and Action)

With the October elections closed, today we take stock of the outcome of the municipal elections and the repercussions on the political scenario and on the national voting guidelines. Let’s start by reading that the Italians have given the results of the municipalities. Prevails an attitude of detachment, almost of indifference, despite the emphasis that the media have given to the electoral appointment: almost four out of ten respondents they declare that they are not informed (30%) or that they are unable to express themselves on the outcome (8%). One in three (34%) believe that the center-left has won, while 3% are convinced of the victory of the center-right, 6% consider the results to be very heterogeneous, with wins and losses by all, and one in five (19% ) believes that they all lost, given the low turnout. And, in this regard,
the high abstention
54% consider it a worrying signal, caused by disappointment and mistrust towards politics, while 12% attribute it to the limited knowledge of candidates and in some cases to their quality, and the remaining part is inclined to reduce the phenomenon, given that 7% believe that the limited participation, although worrying, is common to the main Western democracies and 6% traces it back to Covid and the related fears.

Government approval down

As often happens in conjunction with local elections, the expectations of the overwhelming majority of the media (and of the protagonists of politics) were aimed at the consequences of the vote on the balances of the majority of governo, and on the political scene, imagining a sort of domino effect. Public opinion is of a different opinion, given that a third (34%) believe that nothing will change and a third (31%) does not express themselves (also in this case denoting limited interest); among the remaining interviewees 20% think that the election results will favor governability, also in the future, while 15% are of the opposite opinion. And, speaking of government, compared to the beginning of September, the approval rating of the executive marks a decrease of one point (from 61 to 60), while President Draghi records a decrease of 3 points (from 66 to 63 ), mostly due to the Northern League electorate, following the increasingly frequent conflict between Salvini and the premier.

Hope falls, Letta rises

As for the satisfaction of leaders, the most significant difference compared to the previous survey at the end of July concerns Conte
which, while remaining at the top of the ranking with an index equal to 43, records a decrease of 8 points, to be traced back to the loss of its institutional profile and the assumption of a political role. In flexion too Hope (index 34, -3), presumably due to the lower visibility in recent months. The other way around, increase by 3 Read points (32), Berlusconi (30) e Calenda (28) and 2 Renzi points (14). Lastly, the voting intentions: the Democratic Party seems to benefit from the positive result to municipal and supplementary, recording a slight increase (+0.7) which places it at first place with 20.7% preferences, followed by the League with 20% (down by 0.5%), from FdI stable at 18.8%, by M5S with 16.5% (-0.5%) and by Forza Italia with 8% (-0.2%). Strong growth (+ 3.1%) of the gray area, represented by undecided and abstentionists, which rises to 40.9%. Overall, the three center-right forces, although slightly down (-0.7), with 46.8% largely prevail over those of the center-left, which amounted to 31.9% (+ 1.3%). The hypothesis of a “wide field” which includes the forces of the center-left (excluding Action and Italia viva) and the M5S rises to 44.4% (+ 1%).

Distance between citizens and politics

The most significant element that emerges from today’s survey is dinstance between citizens and politics, witnessed by the increase in abstention and by the prevailing attitude of indifference with respect to recent events and the repercussions on the national scenario. Usually in the weeks following an election, the so-called bandwagon occurs, which consists of jumping on the bandwagon of the winners. Suffice it to say that after the 2016 municipal elections, which saw the striking victory of Virginia Raggi in Rome and Chiara Appendino in Turin, the polls recorded a strong growth in voting intentions for the M5S (which then clearly established itself in the policies of 2018). The same happened in the weeks following the success of Salvini’s League in the 2019 European elections, when the polls recorded an unstoppable increase in both the voting intentions for the party and the popularity of the leader up to the Papeete affair.

Weeks of waiting

Well, today the effects seem more limited: the Democratic Party took the lead and precedes the League by only a few decimal places, Letta increases his personal consensus placing himself in fourth place in the ranking of party leaders and the center-right continues to clearly prevail over the center-left as well as over the possible “wide field”, although the distance has been reduced. Perhaps we will have to wait a few weeks to see more evident effects, or we are in the presence of a change from the past. If so, to the many prodigies attributed to President Draghi we should add the denial of Ennio Flaiano’s famous aphorism according to which Italians are always ready to come to the rescue of the winners.

October 23, 2021 (change October 23, 2021 | 07:06)


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