China slows down, infections in Russia and the UK are on the rise. European exchanges in red

China slows down and European stocks start the week lower. The Dax lost 0.41%, the Cac40 0.52%, the Ftse100 0.19% and the Ftse Mib 0.47% to 26,365 points with four Milanese blue chips detaching the dividend. Wall Street futures were also down (-0.21% for the Dow Jones and -0.29% for the S & P500) after China’s gross domestic product expanded by 0.2% on a cyclical basis and by 4% in the third quarter. , 9% at the economic level, the minimum since the third quarter of 2020.

The result should be compared with the respective 1.2% and 7.9% of the second quarter but above all with the economists’ expectations of 0.5% and 5.2%. Upstream of the braking, the numerous blackouts, bottlenecks in the supply channel and new outbreaks of epidemics. While in September, on a trend basis, industrial production recorded an increase of 3.1% (4.5% expectations after 5.3% in August), retail sales a + 4.4% (+3, 3% the estimate of the consensus after 2.5% of the previous month). Finally, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.9% from 5.1% in August.

Reflecting this data, Ing has lowered its forecasts for Chinese GDP growth in the fourth quarter: it now expects it to grow 4.3% in the fourth quarter compared to its previous forecast of 4.5%, based on the expectation. that the PBoC will reduce the compulsory reserve ratio of banks by 0.5 percentage points. “If there is no easing of monetary policy in the quarter, we should expect further weakening
of GDP growth, “said Ing economist Iris Pang.

Speaking of the increase in infections, Russia has recorded a record of Covid-19 cases in the last 24 hours for the fourth consecutive day. According to the government budget, 34,303 cases have been diagnosed, a record since the start of the pandemic, and 997 deaths. The day before, the country had exceeded the bar of one thousand daily deaths due to Covid-19 for the first time with 1,002 deaths. Russia is the country most affected by the coronavirus in Europe.

At the moment only 32% of Russians are fully vaccinated, according to official data. The coronavirus is also spreading because government health restrictions are very limited, although several regions have reintroduced the Green pass requirement to access public places. The Kremlin, anxious to preserve the economy, has refused any containment on a national scale, while deeming the low vaccination rate of the population “unacceptable”. Since the start of the pandemic, the government has officially registered 223,312 deaths, the highest figure in Europe. Statistics Institute Rosstat, which has a broader definition of coronavirus-related deaths, reports over 400,000 deaths.

Britain also hit a new record for Covid-19 cases yesterday. The infected were 45,140, ​​the highest number since mid-July. In the last 7 days, new cases have risen to over 300 thousand with an increase of 15.1%. There were 57 deaths, bringing the number of people who died in the last seven days to 852, + 8.5% on the previous week. In Italy, on the other hand, yesterday the infections fell to 2,437 and the threshold of 100 million green passes downloaded was exceeded.

While waiting for the government to approve the Budget Planning Document and the outcome of the second round for the administrative ones, with the turnout still lower, the BTP / Bund spread rises to 105.2 basis points and the yield of the 10-year BTP in increase to 0.90% (the 10-year Treasury also rose to 1.599%). Last Friday, the Portuguese central banker and ECB adviser, Mario Centeno, reiterated the official line of Frankfurt: the authorities responsible for the monetary policy of the euro zone consider inflation a phenomenon of a transitory nature.

This is based on all the available analyzes. “The analysis is based on the information we have today, we will certainly have more information next month,” says Centeno. Today France is active on the primary market, offering 2.7-3.1 billion Btf 19/1/2022, 1.6-2 billion 9/3/2022 and 1.3-1.7 billion 5/10/2022 , and Germany offering 3 billion Bubill 21/9/2022 and 3 billion Bubill 23/3/2022. (All rights reserved)

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