Does the number of vaccinates needed for a return to normalcy increase?

With the 90% of first doses Italy will be able to mitigate the state of emergency. It was the professor who said it Walter Ricciardi, full professor of Hygiene at Cattolica and advisor to Minister Speranza. Although the no vax and no pass protests find great space on the front pages of newspapers, over 80% of the vaccinable population, over the age of 12, has already received the first dose.

A promising figure that aims to reach 90%. Faced with this future situation, we begin to ask ourselves if it will be possible to return to normality, the answer is the Cts that tries to dispel any doubts: no to the abolition of the green pass, yes to the attenuation of the state of emergency.

Vaccination data in Italy: aim for 90%

We aim for 90% of the first doses administered. For now, the official records show that they were yesterday 46.1 million Italians vaccinated with at least one dose, equal to 85.4% of the 54 million vaccinable. To reach 90%, therefore, it is necessary that at least another 2.5 million Italians agree to undergo the administration. Since the entry into force of the green pass in the workplace, the vaccination centers have been working at a good pace and every day they administer between 70 and 75 thousand first doses, which fall irremediably on Saturdays and Sundays. The injections then increase by an average of 350,000 per week.

Based on these data, making some calculations it is conceivable that to cross the final goal of 90% it will take another 7 or 8 weeks. In short, the goal is quite close and we expect to reach it shortly before Christmas, igniting the hope for a definitive return to normality.

90% of vaccinations: a Christmas without a Green pass?

Faced with these premises, many hypothesize that the green pass can be definitively abandoned by Christmas. But this is not the case. While 90% is a very good result, this does not automatically equate to herd immunity. In fact, the answer comes from the Scientific Technical Committee: no to the abolition of the green pass before the time.

To explain the reasons for the answer was Fabio Ciciliano, member of the Cts. It will be possible to think about the elimination of the Certificate only when the epidemic is definitively controlled. And to those waiting for Christmas Ciciliano remember that, if last year the holidays were passed with severe restrictions, this year we could spend the eve more serenely but always with the green pass.

90% first doses: will the emergency be alleviated?

In front of the goal of 90% of the first doses it will still be possible to breathe a slight sigh of relief. The state of emergency could be mitigated. With these words Walter Ricciardi tries to dispel doubts about what is being done in Italy. Faced with constant reports of no vax protests, Ricciardi recalls that these people are only a minority and that more than 80% of Italians have already received a first dose.

Achieving the quota 90 surely it will put Italy “in a condition of greater serenity“. However this it will not be enough to eradicate the coronavirus: children for example are not yet involved in the campaign. However, thanks to this the infections are becoming individual and not collective, in this way the health system will not be under pressure.

So 90% is fine, but when children can also be vaccinated we will have to maintain the same coverage on the total population.

With these words Ricciardi remembers that the pandemic is not over. For this reason it will be necessary to remain vigilant on the situation and on the increase or not of cases, the country is now surrounded by countries, both European and Eastern, with dramatic data. Presumably, Ricciardi hypothesized, we must expect an increase in infections with the winter, as important susceptibility basins are still present. He also added, however, that this will not be a problem for the health system.

Italy has reached this state of serenity thanks to the obligation of the green pass and the vaccination campaign. It is with these words that Ricciardi finally wants to reiterate the importance of this instrument, which is often questioned. The certificate has actually already shown its effectiveness “as it happened in Denmark”, Allowing Italy to return to normal, although for this we will have to wait at least for the end of winter.

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