POSSIBLE WEATHER EVOLUTION IN 15 DAYS
We continue our analysis by focusing the lens on the last days of October, therefore on what for some years now has become one of the most awaited holidays by young and old: Halloween. Previously we had talked about possible climatic weather changes, or in any case scenarios oriented towards a grand return of Autumn.
Not that it has been lacking so far, far from it, let’s say that October next week could be short-lived. Yes, because the High Pressure will come to visit us – it is already doing so, despite the fact that at this moment there is some draft of humid air that determines variability and some sporadic scattered precipitation – and it will bring with it particularly mild subtropical air.
But then, what is happening in the upper floors of the atmosphere could reverberate down here, above us. The mathematical models hypothesize an important change, the result of various North Atlantic or even Arctic depression assaults.
THE SHORT-TERM WEATHER
As mentioned we are about to welcome High Pressure. It will be a typically subtropical structure, meaning that in the next few days it will make use of a hot air support. Temperatures will rise by several degrees, the sun will be abundant over all our regions and the days will offer wonderful moments to spend outdoors.
We took a look at the thermal projections and we can only confirm important anomalies: we will have temperatures, above all the maximums, of 4-5 ° C higher than the averages for the period. Locally we could go even further, let’s say that in some regions of Italy the maximum temperatures could reach – or exceed – 25 ° C.
In terms of rainfall, little or nothing to report, if not some pitfalls starting from the Northwest regions at the end of the week.
THE POLAR VORTICE
Pitfalls dictated by the advance of a North Atlantic depression, which would clearly open the door to a truly massive deterioration. A real autumn storm, destined to open the doors to a period characterized by frequent cyclonic assaults.
The reason is to be found, in our opinion, in the dynamics that are already involving the Polar Vortex and its maturation. It is a Vortex that is undergoing very early disturbances and we know all too well that when we find ourselves in front of a weak Vortex we can easily meet meridian exchanges and consequently to descents of cold air towards the south. Hypotheses to be taken into serious consideration especially for the last days of October.
In short, October will not miss anything: from cold to heat and back. It could be the title of a climatic film, but it will be nothing more than the trend of a month, October in fact, which so far has been decidedly dynamic.
We remind you that weather forecasts with validity up to 5 days have greater reliability, while this decreases as we move away over time.