POSSIBLE WEATHER EVOLUTION IN 15 DAYS
The baric system we are observing, namely the High Pressure projected towards the north and constant cold air blows towards Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean, should persist for a long time. The climatic weather conditions in our regions should remain fully autumnal throughout the forecast period.
We have taken a look at the various mathematical models and we must tell you that the anticyclonic block, that is a typically winter baric configuration, should remain on site at least until mid-month. At least another week, on balance.
There is still a bit of uncertainty about what to do next, but we have to take into account a fundamental aspect: when nature takes a path it tends to follow it over and over again. So watch out, because there may be other cold surprises.
THE SHORT-TERM WEATHER
As for the short term, we cannot fail to underline, once again, that October is proving to be a particularly turbulent month. It has often been in recent decades, it is also this year and it could continue on the tracks of extreme weather.
We are waiting for another cold vortex, always coming from the north, which over the weekend will keep our regions in check, causing locally intense rainfall, especially on regions of the mid-lower Adriatic and the South. Elsewhere, clearings will alternate with local cloud coverings, associated a few showers of rain in the areas most exposed to northern winds.
Yes, because the wind will come mainly from the northern quadrants, it means that it will continue to get cold so much so that the temperatures could still lose a few degrees, settling significantly below the seasonal averages.
The cold could even become nasty next week, when cold air arrives from the north-northeast. The High Pressure should push towards Scandinavia, in this sense it would push the Arctic invasion on the Balkans and from there on our regions.
Some models highlight the possibility of the isolation of another low pressure vortex, with the consequences of a recrudescence of bad weather, especially in the Central South and in Sicily. Low temperatures could facilitate other snowfalls on the hills, including the Apennines.
Following, as written at the beginning, further contributions of cold air could intervene and October would be confirmed as a fully autumnal month, if not even vaguely winter.
Definitely anomalous situation, we must say, because from late summer we passed in no time at all to full autumn.
We remind you that weather forecasts with validity up to 5 days have greater reliability, while this decreases as we move away over time.