Mps-UniCredit, the Axa node risks blowing up the deal. And in Banco Bpm …

Weeks of calm waters in Siena in view of the by-elections. Then, with the victory of Enrico Letta, the merger between MPS and another bank is once again very topical. Until a few days ago, there were not many doubts about the “spouse”: UniCredit. However, according to what he can report, something is moving e MPS could find itself with another suitor, the one with the symbol of Banco Bpm. Let’s try to better understand what is happening.

UniCredit CEO Giuseppe Castagna

After Letta’s statement, everyone expected choices in the name of continuity from Siena: no longer Pier Carlo Padoan, who became president of UniCredit, but the secretary To the, that got a clear but not overwhelming statement. Well: something seems to have complicated the union between Piazza Gae Aulenti and Rocca Salimbeni.

And the Banco Bpm driven by Giuseppe Castagna which, not to end up marginalized by the gigantism of Intesa Sanpaolo e Unicredit, might try to respond to the sales methods developed by the Treasury in a more accommodating way than Andrea Orcel would do. Translated: the bank of Piazza Meda, according to some rumors, it could meet the requests of the Ministry of Economy. At the moment, in fact, for Bestinver the Mef should put on the plate a dowry of 5.7 billion in total, including DTA, credit reserves, redundancy incentives and legal requests, in addition to billion euros that Mps should give to Axa if you decide to leave the joint venture.

The CEO of Banco Bpm Giuseppe Castagna

Rumors, of course. So much so that the same Giuseppe Castagna last September 20 in an interview with Courier service he said he “never thought about Mps”. And the credit institution, in a denial that we report, denied any involvement: “Banco Bpm, as already reiterated on several occasions, denies any interest in Mps and to have any kind of dialogue with the Mef”.

The node on which in the last few hours the negotiation between Piazza Gae Aulenti and Rocca Salimbeni would have slowed down is that relating to partnership: UniCredit, in fact, it would be thinking about how to solve the problems related to the historic companies with which it collaborates, without forcing Mps to break long-lasting alliances, such as the one with Axa. Because, in the case, there could even be penalties to pay (about a billion).

Money that Orcel asks to be paid, if necessary, by the state and not by UniCredit, who has repeatedly reiterated to look exclusively at a bank cleansed of any encumbrance. The Milanese credit institution itself must rethink all the agreements with a view to a new industrial plan to be presented to the markets in November of this year.

In particular, Piazza Gae Aulenti would have another possible headache to solve: the agreement with the French giant Amundi for the sale of products for asset management, with which it has a binding agreement until 2026. Mps, on the other hand, has Anima as its partner , and this could force you to make some complex decisions. Other Unicredit partnerships are those with insurance players such as Allianz, Unipol and Generali who may not appreciate too much the presence of Axa in Mps.

Alessandro Melzi d’Eril, the CEO of Anima has already expressed its opinion twice, always a Reuters. The first time at the end of July this year, when without too many words he defined Anima “best in class ”to offer financial services to Unicredit, as well as to Mps.

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