that’s when (and for how long)

All Italy is ready to return to the white area, to stay there: the data on Covid are positive as the curve is falling. The latest monitoring revealed an incidence with a downward trend and a stable Rt, with only Lazio with moderate risk. AND there are no signs of a new wave, with the increase in vaccinations that bodes well for this winter.

At the moment all of Italy is in the white zone with the exception Sicily which will remain yellow for a few days. Despite an improvement in the data, in fact, there will be no color change as of next Monday, as it had been foretold. The change of color, however, was only delayed because – if the numbers were to remain the current ones – as early as next weekend there could be thegoodbye to outdoor masks, a restriction that we recall does not exist in the white area (except for various regional ordinances, such as the one just extended by the Campania Region).

An awaited moment, the return for all in the white zone: on the other hand, last year of this period, especially due to the reopening of schools, there were already the first signs of the second wave. This year, however, thanks to vaccines and green pass rules, it seems that the return to class is not having any repercussions on infections.

When Italy will return to being all in the white zone

From Monday 4 October there will be no regions that change color. No worsening enough to justify a move to the yellow zone, but not even an improvement to ensure that the only region in yellow – Sicily – can immediately return to white.

Today, in fact, the ISS ministerial control room acknowledged that as of 23 September the critical thresholds were below the limits expected. However, it takes exactly two weeks for a return to white, which is why the decision will only be made next Friday.

However, on that occasion there should be something new: instead of foreseeing the color change on Monday, as scheduled, this could be early to Saturday, so as to save the weekend. Consequently, all of Italy should return to the white zone as early as Saturday 9 October.

Unless, of course, there is a new deterioration at the same time, which however does not seem to be in the forecasts of the experts. On the other hand, today the island is al 7,5% of occupancy of beds in intensive care (the limit is 10%), while in the medical departments we are at 12,9% (the limit is 15%). The weekly incidence, which last week was 109 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, has dropped to 79 almost.

As far as Italy will remain all in the white zone

Looking at the data of the weekly ISS monitoring, there do not seem to be regions that are likely to pass into the yellow zone, at least in the immediate future.

The most at risk is the Calabria, where ICU admissions are on the rise – coming in at 9,5% – while those in the medical areas go down but still remain above the threshold of 15%. Therefore, only one of the parameters is satisfied. Nor does the incidence exceed the risk threshold, set at 50 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants: here, in fact, we are at 46.8 weekly infections.

The Sardinia, where – also thanks to the end of the holidays – we went down to 21 weekly infections every 100 thousand inhabitants, with an intensive care occupation rate at 4,9%, while in the ordinary departments we are al 7,9%.

The same is true in the rest of Italy: there are no regions at risk. And also given the trend of contagions, in continuous decline, it is easy to imagine aAll white Italy throughout the month of October – Calabria permitting – with the hope that at the same time increase vaccinations thus arriving at the safety threshold identified by the Government.

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