The latest from Radiocor
1 October, 09:26
BTp: spread with Bund opens slightly to 106 basis points, yield at 0.84%
1 October, 09:22
Stock Exchange: October starts badly with inflation risk and Asia data, Milan -1.5%
1 October, 08:21
*** Germany: in August retail sales + 1.1% on the month, + 0.4% on the year
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European stock markets fall. After a September to forget, the Old Continent indices are still hit by sales even in October, affected by the closing down recorded by Wall Street (-1.595 Dow Jones, -1.19% S&P and -0.44% Nasdaq) and from Tokyo (-2.3%). The start-up European markets recorded declines of more than 1%. Then they tried to limit the damage. Defensive actions are positive in Milan. The spread is slightly up in the area of 106 points.
Inflation concerns weigh heavily, but bond rates are holding back
September was the worst of 2021 for both the American and European markets, with the exception of Milan, which in any case left around 1.2% on the parterre. The stock markets have widened their losses in recent sessions, affected by the rise in government bond yields, both overseas and in the Old Continent. For example, ten-year Treasury rates have pushed beyond 1.54%. During the night, however, they backtracked in the 1.48% area. In Europe, too, they are slowing down: yields on ten-year Bunds are around 1.21%. The question mark remains on the future moves of central banks, especially the US, after the number one, Jerome Powell, admitted that high inflation is very likely “to last longer than expected”, due to the bottlenecks in supply chains. In Asia, the impact of disruptions on supply chains in China, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries is of concern. Among other things, the Chinese macro data of the last few days have raised doubts that the recovery may lose momentum. In addition to frightening the markets is the rally in energy prices which obviously pushes inflation even higher. Meanwhile, overseas, Congress has approved the law to finance government activities and avoid the shutdown, or the paralysis of federal activities. However, for now it is only a truce: in fact, the green light has been given to a measure that will finance the government until 3 December. For now, however, the situation regarding the federal debt limit, to be increased or suspended to avoid default, is stalled. Both Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Powell reiterated that a default would be “catastrophic”.
In Piazza Affari, only Terna and Diasorin are saved
In Milan, sales hit the Agnelli galaxy in the first place: Stellantis loses well over 2%, after the group’s registrations in France fell more than the market in September. Exor and Cnh Industrial are also in sharp decline. Above parity only defensive stocks such as Terna, Enell and Diasorin.
Euros still below 1.16 dollars. Eyes on crude oil
On the foreign exchange front, the dollar remains strong. The greenback, favored by the increase in US Treasury yields and by the fact of being perceived as a safe haven asset in times of tension like the current one, forced the euro below the 1.16 threshold, levels not seen since the end. July 2020. Thus the euro is worth 1.1585 dollars, from 1.1590 yesterday at the close. Little moved the price of oil, which in any case remains at sustained levels, albeit below the highs of recent days, top since October 2018. Meanwhile, investors are wondering about the news released by Bloomberg, according to which China has ordered state-controlled energy companies to secure supplies for the winter at all costs. The expectation is also rising for Monday, when the producer countries of the Opec + group will meet to decide on future production levels. Meanwhile, White House spokesperson Jen Psaki said that the price of oil is “a cause for concern for the United States” and that Washington “is in contact” with OPEC.