What to expect from a succession of extreme weather events generated from the intrusion of fresh air coming from Iceland in heart of the Mediterranean Sea? The dynamics proposed by the mathematical models of prediction are the right ones, and generally they determine a drastic change in weather conditions, associated with a flurry of perturbations, often thunderstorms.
The change in weather will first sanction the arrival of true autumn in Northern Italy, where by now the temperature will no longer rise to the levels of September, but this should not happen elsewhere either, if not temporarily due to temporary intrusions of hot air from the Sahara.
And the cold air from the Northwest will go to trigger low pressure areas between the Balearics and the Ligurian Gulf, and here comes the great autumn rains throughout Northern Italy and most of the Tyrrhenian regions, but also part of Sardinia. To a lesser extent it should rain on the Lower Tyrrhenian Sea and Sicily, even if these parts could experience isolated thunderstorms, but of strong intensity, typical at this time of the year.
We will have a kind of break from the summer season which will happen extremely late, breaking up definitively a late summer is very dry over Italy.
Ma the North African antagonist it will continue to press northwards, and sketch out atmospheric circulation configurations that could give other days with similar summer weather in the central-southern Italian regions and the major islands, especially in the continuation of October.
But the biggest step will be with the weather change, and all that will come will no longer be summer, but autumn. Autumn is an interlude season, which sees a rapid cooling as you go north, while it usually appears more subdued towards the south, even if this year the heat over there is much more than exaggerated.
It is in all this context that European Russia will also begin to cool, where cold air bursts will gradually arrive, and the first frosts will make their way into the plains.
And then here is the real autumn will begin gradually opening the doors to atmospheric conditions that at times may even assume winter dress between central Europe, the north of the continent, to touch the north of Italy.
And yes, in almost everything Northern Italy from mid-October the radiators will be turned on, and will sentence the seasonal change, provided they do not intervene other upheavals, which with climate change become more and more frequent, which they crumble precious days of climatic normality.
We in the Mediterranean, however, have a huge bill to pay: its warm waters. And yes, he is as if it were one unexploded bomb waiting to detonate with the first cat that will be on. To understand us better, the Mediterranean Sea records temperatures that are much higher than the seasonal average, this will favor an increase in intensity of atmospheric phenomena, and here we will have extreme weather events.
And we will have the opportunity to analyze it day by day, with forecasts that could also suggest ideal weather conditions even for floods. This is the most critical season of the year, that of thermal contrasts, and never before for 40 or perhaps 50 years, we will be more at risk of unusual weather phenomena.