What tells us what happened in Germany? That the era of the two big parties is over, which to govern now even need to form a coalition with two other parties. And it will be these two central parties that will decide the name of the future Chancellor. There will be a long negotiation but between Ampel and Jamaika as I had already written in this newspaper Ampel will win in the end.
And it will not be an easy government because the Greens and the Yellow are two parallels that will not be easy to converge.
What happened in Germany is that you win in the center, the problem is that two centers are too many in a system.
Who has lost? Of course there is a blow to the CDU but it was actually taken for granted. In reality, the two centers win and the two extremes lose. Afd is now confined to the Länder of the former GDR and the Linke has not passed the threshold.
Okay, our electoral system is different. But I think one fact also applies to us: the end of bipolar disorder. We have two lefts (PD and M5S), one right (FdI) and we don’t have a center. The center could have been represented by FI but by now this party is on the way to decline as its leader. And there are no leaders in that party who can take Berlusconi’s place. Who denies this coffin. The center can now only be built starting from the League. This explains the League’s attempt at political repositioning and the decision to join the Draghi government.
Will Salvini succeed in this feat? Hard to say. It has all strong powers against. For the construction of a “big center” in a system that is no longer bipolar, he needs to create a new political force in which Lega and Forza Italia unite, overcoming the resistance of those who in FI are rowing against him. This is why it is important that even before the administrative elections Berlusconi and Salvini meet and announce the new political project.
An old center right against two left is destined to end up like the CDU / CSU.
Salvini, an obstacle that the ‘system’ must break down. Died? Nothing is accidental …