There is no clear winner in Germany

On Sunday, elections were held in Germany to renew the parliament and therefore also the government. No clear winner emerged from the preliminary results.

The Social Democratic Party has received more votes than the others, about 25.7 percent, and will have a relative majority of parliamentarians, as has not happened since 2002. The CDU-CSU, Angela Merkel’s center-right party, has fared worse. obtained 24.1 per cent and for the first time in almost twenty years it will not express a relative majority of parliamentarians (and could remain outside the next government). The Greens, with 14.8 percent, almost doubled the votes compared to the last elections in 2017, but fared much worse than the expectations at the start of the election campaign.

In the coming days, negotiations will begin to try to form a government majority, which can last many months: in the meantime, Merkel will remain in office for current affairs.

(graphic from the website of the German Parliament)

According to several analysts, yesterday’s vote highlighted great uncertainty on the part of German voters: “Germany voted but did not take a clear decision”, commented in an editorial. Southgerman newspaper: «Even when we have the official results, all options will remain open». “There is no clear winner. There is no clear chancellor. There is no clear majority. There is no clear prospect, ”a European diplomat told al Sheet.

The significant fragmentation of the vote will almost certainly complicate negotiations to form a government.

At the moment, the possible majorities that would have a sufficient number of seats to govern are three: one is the so-called Big coalition between SPD and CDU-CSU, in office in the last two terms but now rather worn out; the other two hypotheses foresee either the SPD or the CDU-CSU at the head of a coalition with the Greens and the liberals of the FDP. Not even these two will be easy to implement, given the considerable differences in program between the Greens and the FDP: yet they will, in fact, decide which party will lead the next government majority, so much so that Sunday evening the leader of the ‘FDP Christian Lindner suggested that his party begin negotiations for the new government by confronting the Greens.

To date, however,

it looks like a government led by the SPD and its leader, Olaf Scholz, along with the Greens and the FDP.

The increase in support obtained in recent weeks by the SPD seems to be due precisely to the popularity of its leader, who is currently vice-chancellor and finance minister in the Merkel government. The poor result of the CDU-CSU has been attributed in large part to the weakness of its candidate chancellor, Armin Laschet, today much criticized within his party according to some German newspapers.

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