The ISS dossier photographs the situation today, two weeks after the start of school. Vaccines which determine both the contagion and the outcomes of the infection
Vaccines effective in preventing infection (between 70% in children and 86% in over 80s), severe illness and hospitalization. Slight increase in infections among children (3-5 years) who, however, do not need hospital treatment. Italy increasingly “free” from the pandemic virus. The dossier of the Higher Institute of Health photographs the state of the contagion in Italy, updated on Friday. The situation is turning for the good even if there are signs to monitor.
A focus, in consideration of the resumption period of lessons, is dedicated to children and young people of school age. In the last month, 23.6% of the infected were between 0 and 18 years old. In the last two weeks, 50% of the cases diagnosed under the age of 19 concern the under 12, that is, those who cannot be vaccinated as an anti Covid has not yet been authorized for this age. While all the curves showing the incidence of the virus per 100,000 inhabitants point downwards, that relating to children under 12 is essentially stable.
If the 5 bands between zero and 19 years are separated, the one between 3 and 5 years is the only one with a slight increase in infections in the last week compared to the previous one. On the other hand, hospitalizations, while continuing to be a rare occurrence in children (from 0.9% between 16 and 19 years of age to 11.5% of infants), are increasing in the under 20s.
Covid vaccines, like all others, do not protect 100% but this is capable of building a very high barrier. If you complete the course, it defends 88% from infection, 94% from hospitalization, 97% from intensive care, 96% from the fatal outcome of the disease. The preventive “strength” is indisputable: the double inoculation avoids death from 92.7 to 95.2% of cases, depending on age, and hospitalization in intensive care for more than 95%.
All other indicators of contagion are positive. Total cases of infection in the past seven days are 16.5% fewer than the previous week. The daily average of infected falls from 4,200 to 3,700. It is the first time in weeks that the occupancy rate of the beds has dropped both in the ordinary wards (from 7 to 6%) and in intensive care (from 6 to 5%). Deaths are also down: 52 per day on average, compared to 57 in the previous seven days. There are only five regions and autonomous provinces (Lazio, Campania, Piedmont, Val d’Aosta and the Province of Trento) in which cases have increased in the last seven days. And today in none (including Sicily) there are values from the yellow zone: incidence above 50 per 100 thousand inhabitants, 10% occupied beds in intensive care and 15% in ordinary wards respectively.
The picture would not seem so bright by analyzing the numbers on vaccination efficacy in the population over 12 years old divided by cases diagnosed, hospitalized, hospitalized in intensive care and who died in the last 30 days. In the immunized age groups with full cycle the victims are more numerous than those in the unvaccinated group. The inconsistency is more evident among those aged between 60 and 79 and those over 80. Consider this last category: the unvaccinated deaths are 338 (47%) those completely immunized 364 (50.6%) and those vaccinated with only one dose, 17 (2.4%).
How can this be explained? The Higher Institute of Health replies as follows: «If vaccinations reach high levels of coverage, the paradoxical effect occurs whereby the absolute number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths can be similar between vaccinated and non-vaccinated people. However, the incidence, that is to say the ratio between cases and populations, is about 10 times lower in vaccinated than in unvaccinated ». In fact, the 364 deaths among the vaccinated are out of a population of over 4 million people, therefore 8.7 per 100 thousand, while the 338 among the unvaccinated are just over 280 thousand, therefore 119 per 100 thousand, 13 times more.
Yesterday’s data is also on average with the general improvement in the contagion situation: 3,099 new cases, almost 500 fewer than the day before, 44 deaths and a stable positivity rate of 1.1%.
September 27, 2021 (change September 27, 2021 | 07:30)
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