Communal in Rome, overtaking in the suburbs: this is how Gualtieri can win

Communal in Rome, overtaking in the suburbs: this is how Gualtieri can win
Communal in Rome, overtaking in the suburbs: this is how Gualtieri can win

The first round is the first round and the second round is the second round. A self-evident statement, if you like, but which contains the essence of the double round of municipal elections. Where, in the two weeks that separate the two deadlines, another game begins. And, in the case of the race to the Capitol, in the survey developed by Swg, the final result would be different. Roberto Gualtieri, in fact, that in the vote of the first round a few points are given below Enrico Michetti, on the other hand the ballot would win.

And not even slightly: 58 percent, against 42 for the center-right challenger, with 10% undecided (the lowest percentage of the various possible ballots). After all, Michetti is chosen at 59% because “supported by the list or party I intend to vote” (against 44% of Gualtieri, preferred by 49% of the voters for his qualities) and the driving force of the parties, in the second round is inevitably less.

Virginia Raggi and Gualtieri in San Basilio, for the center-left candidate, a night visit

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It would be the film, but in inverted political colors, of what happened in 2008. Then it was Gianni Alemanno (candidate of the then PDL) who “turned” a few points behind Francesco Rutelli (40.7% against 45.8%), but then to put the overtaking arrow in the 14 days towards the ballot, filling up with centrist voters and those even more to the right of him (Francesco Storace was also a candidate at the time). In the event that Gualtieri and Michetti ended up in the second round, the center-left would be favored: a part of the electorate of the “excluded”, in fact, would end up voting for the former Minister of the Economy.

Even more overwhelming, for Gualtieri, would be the victory against Virginia Raggi: 68 to 32, a surprising result in a certain sense, practically overturned compared to the 2016 vote when it was Raggi who largely beat Roberto Giachetti of the Democratic Party (67.1 percent compared to 32.8 of the dem). Much more balanced the hypothesis instead of a runoff between Gualtieri and Calenda: 50 even, with the tip of the balance that would then be represented by 14% of the undecided.

Michetti, in the second round, would have the worst even against Calenda (42 to 58) and would only win against Raggi (55 to 45) while Calenda – according to the poll – would also beat the current mayor (68 to 32). For Gualtieri, the “stronghold” of votes is the South-East area, the one that takes up many of the most popular neighborhoods: Tiburtino, Prenestino, Tor Bella Monaca, Tuscolano, Laurentino.

Stadio della Roma, the yes of the candidates: four favored areas. The Giallorossi club: “Project within a year”

There his percentages rise: 61 to 39 against Michetti, 55 to 45 against Calenda (who instead check the center-north area), 69 to 31 against the Raggi. While, compared to the eventual challenge with Michetti, the game is more balanced in the more central or semi-central districts: in Prati, Flaminio, Centro, Montesacro, Balduina, Tor di Quinto the gap would be 55 to 45; at Eur, Monteverde, Portuense it goes up to 58 against 42 per cent.

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