The first round match will end with Michetti in the head and Gualtieri just below, and with the two ready to challenge each other in the ballot. Calenda is placed third and the Rays fourth. This is the photograph taken by Swg for the Messenger, two weeks from the vote for the Capitol. It is the freshest and most in-depth poll on the elections a Roma and describes, in view of the second round, a situation of center-right-center-left bipolarism with Michetti and Gualtieri fighting for close percentages.
Mayor of Rome, the Swg poll for the Messenger
The quota report Michetti first place in a fork ranging from 29 to 33 percent. He presses him Gualtieri with 26-30 percent. They follow Calenda (18-22 percent), Rays (15-19 percent) and the others (3-5 percent). But then in the run-off, according to these findings, the center-left candidate would prevail for 58 to 42, thanks to the arrival of a share of the votes that went to the calendisti and grillini in the first place. The center-right would have expected – but this is a poll, then the real votes will have to be counted – a greater gap at the end of the first round between Michetti and Gualtieri, calculating the strength of the coalition parties in Rome.
And instead Michetti gets fewer votes than those of the lists connected to him (these at 34.5, he as candidate for mayor no more than 33). The game is, of course, open. Meanwhile, it should be noted that, compared to another Swg survey, a week ago, Michetti and Calenda were one point above the data of this new photograph, while Gualtieri was one point below and therefore would have gained a point in a week. This is to say that there will be variations between now and October 3 and 4. And they could also concern the undecided.
In the poll for Il Messaggero, the share of those who have not yet chosen who to vote is 44 percent. Which is quite high. But according to experts on electoral flows, when the undecided are below the 50 percent threshold they do not affect the result. Because many of them will not go to vote, and at most 5 percent will. So we shouldn’t expect major reversals compared to the latest forecasts? This will be seen. In fact, Enrico Letta, looking at the match in Rome but not only at this one, is warning his people: «Humility and proximity to the people, this is how we must behave. And we don’t look at the polls ». The fear of the secretary of the Democratic Party is that favorable polls can give a sense of security and push the militants and candidates to a disengagement. On the other hand, those who lead Michetti’s electoral campaign have this card to play: aiming for the final rush on a much more pronounced protagonism of Salvini and Meloni on the Roman square.
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